Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232219 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 619 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 618 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES ALONG THE VT/NH BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT...MOSTLY SO ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD ALOFT AND NEAR THE SFC OVERNIGHT THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AGL. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN MIXING WITH AND EVEN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THEN HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S DOWN EAST. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR LOW WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. H5 LOW CENTER WL LKLY BE LOCATED OVR THE STATE FRI NGT. SPOKE OF UPR LVL S/WV LOOKS TO ROTATE THRU NRN ZONES IN THE EVNG BFR SHIFTING WEAKENING BY MIDNIGHT, THUS HV STARTED THE SHORT TERM WITH LKLY POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO CHC AFT 04Z. EXPECT HIGHEST QPF AMNTS TO BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACRS NW ZONES. NW FLOW CONTS FOR FRI NGT BUT THIS WL LKLY BE IN COMPETITION WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TEMP FALL FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. FIRST GUESS IS THAT NORTH WOODS SHUD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LWR 30S WITH BTWN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FALLING THRU SAT MRNG. RAIN CONTINUES OFF AND ON DRG THE DAY SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY TO UPR COLD POOL WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SVRL DEGREES BLO NORMAL. MAIN H5 LOW SLIDES EAST INTO NORTH ATLANTIC SAT NGT, HWVR ANOTHER VORT LOBE LOOKS TO BREAK OFF FM PARENT LOW AND SEND YET ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS INTO CWA SUN AFTN. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SUN MRNG LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF EAST COAST OF US WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER CWA WILL RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN TO AN INVERTED TROF EARLY MONDAY. THIS TROF IS PERSISTANT UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOWSHOWERS BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHEAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL IN PERIODS OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND THEN IN RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY IN PERIODS OF RAIN. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT NORTHERN TERMINALS TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO -SHSN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT PRIMARILY FOR SEAS THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: WAVES AND WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH RAINFALL OF GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...CB/DUDA/FARRAR MARINE...CB/DUDA/FARRAR HYDROLOGY...DUDA/CB

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