Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310539 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 139 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF MAINE OVERNIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE UPPER TROF NOW EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED MORNING SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 40S DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE NJ COAST TUE EVE AND WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU. LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO THU WITH A WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU PM. AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN QUEBEC TUE EVENING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WED. THERE WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF APRIL. HIGHS WED WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 30S DOWN EAST. IT SHOULD BE A M/SUNNY DAY ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AND P/SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE CLOUDS COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WED NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE AT NIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY THU WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MAINE BY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DOWN EAST THAT COULD BRIEFLY START AS SNOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT WITH SNOW TO END AS SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE DOWN EAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS OF FOG TOO. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FRI-SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT...BUT HOW QUICKLY AND WHETHER IT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION OR PUSHES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS AS ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS GIVES A GLANCING BLOW WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW DOWNEAST. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH A NUMBER OF MEMBERS EVEN TAKING THE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING AND IS MORE OR LESS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT SAT NIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUN. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW THU AFTERNOON. IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS. IFR AGAIN POSSIBLE SAT IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR WIND WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THU AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU NIGHT AS SLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRES THAT WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NW OF THE WATERS.
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&& .CLIMATE... THIS MARCH IS PROJECTED TO END AS THE 4TH COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR. FOR THE PERIOD JAN-MAR IT WILL LIKELY END AS THE COLDEST ON RECORD AT BANGOR. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB MARINE...NORCROSS/CB CLIMATE...CB

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