Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151957 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 357 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... IT IS A BREEZY, SUNNY, SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND THE COOL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTH AND GENERALLY MID 20S DOWNEAST. THE QUESTION IS IF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND TEMPS TO REALLY DROP. IT APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO DECOUPLE, WITH MAINLY THE NORTH WOODS DECOUPLING LATE IN THE NIGHT SINCE THE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BE CLOSEST TO THERE BY DAWN. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE MORNING, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS, COASTAL DOWNEAST MAY BE A BIT COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW COOLS THINGS DOWN A BIT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE CWA STILL INFLUENCED BY DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TWO STORM SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... OVERALL NO MAJOR ISSUES WITH FLOODING YET THAT WE HAVE HEARD...JUST SOME LOCALIZED MINOR ISSUES. RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP. MUCH OF THE LOWER PENOBSCOT RIVER IS ACTUALLY ICE FREE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN MOSTLY FROZEN, ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS CAN BE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES WITH ICE MOVEMENT. RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...BERDES AVIATION...FOISY/BERDES MARINE...FOISY/BERDES HYDROLOGY...FOISY

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