Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181441 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1041 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1015 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS TO MATCH UP CURRENT CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON MAXES UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON HOW THINGS WERE TAKING SHAPE AS OF THE 10 AM OBS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NEXT S/WV TO AFFECT THE CWA LTR TDA IS MVG SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AT THIS TIME. MODELS AGREE ON TRACK OF THIS WV SLIDING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY SRN MAINE BY 00Z TONIGHT HWVR THEY STILL DISAGREE ON NWRD EXTENT OF QPF ASSOC WITH IMPENDING SYSTEM. GFS CONTS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO NAM/EC, THO LATEST HIRES ARW AND NMM AND LATEST RAP, TO A LESSER EXTENT, HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH QPF SHIELD. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT DRY AIRMASS WL BE HARD TO OVERCOME IN ENUF TIME TO JUSTIFY POPS MAINLY NORTH OF A KATAHDIN- DANFORTH LINE. IN GENERAL JUST EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLDS OVR NRN ZONES WITH VIRGA EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG HRS. CURRENT TEMPS HV DROPPED DOWN TO RIGHT ARND FRZG ACRS NRN ZONES IN CAA BHND SFC CDFNT NOW BISECTING THE STATE OF MAINE. STILL EXPECTING MORNING MINS TO DROP TO RIGHT ARND 30F ACRS NORTHERN CNTYS WITH INTERIOR DOWNEAST FALLING INTO THE M/U 30S. GIVEN CLD CVR EXPECTED TDA HIGHS SHUD ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U40S OVR THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH M50S OVR SRN SXNS OF FA. THESE TEMPS WL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES CLDR THAN YDA THO STILL RIGHT ARND NORMAL VALUES. FCST QPF VALUES OF 0.10-0.20 INCHES ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS POINT. THIS IS FORTUNATE IN THAT LIQUID PCPN LOOKS TO FALL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INVERTED TROF KEEPING CHC FOR SHOWERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT PERHAPS ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACRS NRN SOMERSET CNTY. PCPN WL BE TOO QUICK TO WIND DOWN AND HV FOREGONE ANY ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. MINS WL BE IN THE U20S IN THE NORTH UNDER MOCLDY SKIES AND L/M30S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING ON SUNDAY BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE RAIN APPROACHES ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RAIN WILL PUSH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SLEET TO MIX IN EARLY TUESDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST A BIT OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND A PUSH OF DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME BRIGHTENING ON WEDNESDAY. BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FILL IN AGAIN AS MOISTURE CIRCULATING IN THE TROUGH MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 850-700 THICKNESSES ARE MUCH COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN AREAS. SNOW IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE VERY ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT WITH THE MID LEVEL THICKNESSES LOW AND THE AIR UNSTABLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE OVER HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH THE AIR CONTINUING TO BE COLD ALOFT. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TO START OFF TAF VALID TIME BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN TOWARD 02Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS. AT BGR AND BHB EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -RA TOWARD 22Z TODAY. BHB MAY EXPERIENCE IF CIGS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER MONDAY THEN IFR ON TUESDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. && .HYDROLOGY... THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN CONTINUES TO CAUSE FLOODING. SOME ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WASHBURN REMAIN CLOSED OR OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM, BUT REMAIN OPEN W/ONE LANE. THE JAM IN FORT FAIRFIELD MOVED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE WITH LEVELS REMAINING HIGH. PORTIONS OF RIVERSIDE AVE HAD HIGH WATER ACROSS IT. ALONG THE ST. JOHN RIVER, AN ICE JAM WAS STILL HUNG UP FROM GRADN ISLE DOWN TO THE VAN BUREN TOWN LINE. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SOME WATER RUNNING THROUGH THE JAM. NO MAJOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING JUST LOWLAND FLOODING UP TOWARD THE ALLAGASH-ST. FRANCIS TOWN LINE. ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ICE JAMS WILL CAUSE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO ADVANCED NOTICE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR SHORT TERM...BLOOMER/HEWITT LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT MARINE...FARRAR/BLOOMER/HEWITT HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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