Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150238 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1038 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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1030 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS W/LOW LYING SPOTS ALREADY DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ME W/WIND TURNING TO THE WNW. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF BUT ARE FORECAST TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME CLOUDS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN TIER AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER OVERNIGHT. REMOVED PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. POPS TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO SETTLE DOWN HYDRO WISE OVERNIGHT AS RIVER RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW UP. NO FLOODING ISSUES ATTM. ANY LINGERING PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. THE DAY WILL THEN TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY/FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REGARDING WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE MAINE DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR WHETHER THE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS MAINE. EITHER SCENARIO WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY. RAIN TOTALS AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW COULD THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS LATER SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP EARLY THIS EVENING FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BE BELOW SCA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN SOLID ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE EDGES IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES W/ICE MOVEMENT. RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT HYDROLOGY...BLOOMER/HEWITT

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