Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 161650
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1250 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SEE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFO ON THE FLOODING
SITUATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT COASTAL DOWN EAST WHERE A
SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING
RECORDED TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD REACH AS FAR AS BANGOR BY MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND WELL INTO INTERIOR HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY
EARLY SPRING DAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT WITH AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING STEADY SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CDFNT WL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.
HV BUMPED POPS TO CHC FOR ENTIRE CWA FRI MRNG BUT LEAD WV WL PULL
EAST INTO MARITIMES BY 18Z, LVG JUST SCTD SHOWERS ALONG FRONT ACRS
NRN ZONES DRG THE MID-LATE AFTN HRS. MAX TEMPS FOR FRI WL BE IN THE
U50S OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES WITH EARLY HIGHS IN THE U50S OVR
NRN ZONES THEN DROPPING AS FROPA OCCURS.

NEXT SYSTEM WL MV INTO MAINE SAT MRNG AS 5H VORT MAX DROPS THRU SRN
QUEBEC. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MV INTO WRN ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS THEN
SPREAD EAST THRU THE DAY WITH MOST LOCALES LKLY RECEIVING MEASURABLE
PCPN ON SATURDAY. THUS HV BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR A TIME ON SAT
AFTN.

SAT NGT WV WL PULL EAST BRINGING PCPN TO AN END POSSIBLY AS SNOW
SHOWERS ACRS NRN ZONES WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SNOW ACCUMS ACRS
THE CROWN BFR WINDING DOWN BY 06Z SUN. HV LEFT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS
EXTRM NRN AROOSTOOK CNTY FOR SUNDAY AS WK H5 WV DROPS SOUTH IN NW
FLOW, THO CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ANY PCPN WL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM WL FEATURE UNSETTLED WX AS H5 LOW DROPS THRU
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND CLOSES OFF OVR
UPR MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SFC, THIS WL RESULT IN LOPRES
ACRS ONTARIO/QUEBEC WITH EXTENSIVE SRLY FLOW COMING IN FM THE
ATLANTIC THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS WL ADVERTISE CHC/LKLY
POPS EACH PD THRU END OF LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON FRI IN -SHRA. MORE
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS WAVE DROPS IN SATURDAY POSSIBLY ENDING AS
-SN ACRS NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE SAT NGT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS TO REACH UP TO 25 KTS...BUT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRI MRNG INTO FRI EVNG AS SEAS RANGE
FROM 4-6FT AND WINDS GUST NEAR AND POSSIBLY OVER 25KTS DURING THIS
PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE ICE JAM FORMED NEAR THE DICKEY BRIDGE ON THE SAINT JOHN
RIVER UPSTREAM OF ALLAGASH. HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THIS STRETCH OF RIVER. WILL BE WATCHING THIS JAM AND ITS POTENTIAL
TO MOVE DOWNRIVER TOWARDS ST FRANCIS AND FORT KENT. WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE MID-UPPER 50S TODAY AND STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...EXPECT ICE TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP
AND MOVING ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...LAW
ENFORCEMENT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY CHANGE TO THE JAM ALONG AROOSTOOK
UPSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD AND THAT FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE.

RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE OPENING UP. MUCH OF
THE LOWER PENOBSCOT RIVER IS ACTUALLY ICE FREE. HOWEVER, MOST OF
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN MOSTLY FROZEN, ALTHOUGH THE
ICE IS BEGINNING TO SOFTEN AND SOME NARROW OPENINGS CAN BE SEEN
IN RESPONSE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. ALL GAGES SHOWING RISES WITH
ICE MOVEMENT.

RISES ON THE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE. SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OF ICE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/MCW
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
MARINE...FOISY/MCW/FARRAR
HYDROLOGY...FOISY/MCW


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