Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202020 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 420 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NOT MANY CHGS NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FCST FROM RECENT PRIOR UPDATES. EVENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE UPSLOPE AND COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESPECTIVELY PLAY A ROLE IN PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OVR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND E...RNFL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF TO AS LOW AS 0.65 INCHES OVR THE FAR NE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN CHG ATTMS TO WET SN OVRNGT OVR HIER TRRN ABV 1250 FT MSL...WITH MOST LCTNS RECEIVING AN INCH OR LESS...XCPT THE HIGHEST CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND MT KATAHDIN TRRN...WHICH MAY RECEIVE LCLZD 2 INCH+ AMOUNTS. EVEN HERE...TEMPS SHOULD WARM ALF TUE MORN CHGNG ANY HI TRRN SN TO RN BY MIDDAY AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SPCLY HIER TRRN...WHERE WE CONT THE WIND ADV. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTN. HI TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BLO AVG TUE WITH RNFL...THICK CLD CVR AND A RAW ESE WIND HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY RN SHOULD PROGRESS TO TO THE NE QUARTER OF THE FA BY ERLY TUE EVE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH RAIN ENDING. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN. HOWEVER, IT WON`T EXACTLY BE WARM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT NIGHT SPCLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR CLGS/VSBYS IN RN THIS EVE AND OVRNGT...AND THEN INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR CLGS LATE TNGT INTO TUE. DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST BACK TO MVFR TUES AFTN WHEN STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO SCT SHWRS. SHORT TERM: MVFR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IFR FOR THURSDAY WITH RAIN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT GALE WRNG SLATED TO BEGIN AT 11 PM AND THEN CONT TIL 6 PM TUE. LATEST MODEL WINDS AND WV HTS WERE CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREV FCST...SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TM. SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL STILL BE UP AROUND 10 FEET AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, THOUGH THEY MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .HYDROLOGY... ICE MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT MATTAWAMKEAG AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT LIKELY INTO THE LATE WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FROM INTERMITTENT RAINFALL. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARY STREAMS HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NO CLEAR CANDIDATES FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...RISING SEAS AND A VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN SOME MINOR SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...VJN/FOISY MARINE...VJN/FOISY HYDROLOGY...VJN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN

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