Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4

000
AXUS74 KCRP 012235
DGTCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-152245-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
435 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...NO CHANGE IN DROUGHT STATUS IN SOUTH TEXAS...

...CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI LIKELY TO SOON GO INTO STAGE 3
WATER RESTRICTIONS...

...OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD
FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...

.SYNOPSIS...
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS SAW BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL DURING FEBRUARY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION OCCURRED FROM TIME TO TIME OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WAS STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. WHILE NEARLY EVERY LOCATION IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
(HSA) RECEIVED AT LEAST 1/2 INCH OF PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE
AREA SAW NO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL DURING
FEBRUARY. THE ONLY AREA RECEIVING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DO NOT
EXIST.

MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA (WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXIST) SAW NO MORE THAN 75 PERCENT
OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...WITH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VICTORIA AND NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES
RECEIVING NO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL FEBRUARY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SINCE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST 90 DAYS
WAS NEAR (IF NOT ABOVE) NORMAL OVER MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...DROUGHT
CONDITIONS DID NOT CHANGE DURING THE PAST MONTH.

ALTHOUGH A BRIEF EL-NINO EPISODE IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
MIDDLE OF SPRING...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
WILL RETURN TO AN ENSO-NEUTRAL (EL-NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL) PATTERN BY THE LATE SPRING...CONTINUING INTO THE SUMMER.

ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID ON FEBRUARY 24
2015...THERE WAS NO CHANGE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OBSERVED ON
JANUARY 27 OVER THE HSA. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
OVER A VERY SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN VICTORIA COUNTY...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF GOLIAD COUNTY. AREAS REMAINING IN
MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF
VICTORIA COUNTY...THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALHOUN COUNTY...ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF GOLIAD COUNTY...AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
BEE COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CALHOUN...GOLIAD...AND VICTORIA COUNTIES (NOT IN
DROUGHT STATUS)...AS WELL AS MUCH OF BEE COUNTY (NOT IN
DROUGHT)...REFUGIO...NORTHEASTERN ARANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

FOR A MORE PRECISE EVALUATION OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR
PRODUCT SHOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS (AND ALL OF
TEXAS)...GO TO THE CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT SITE (LOWER CASE):

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE BURN BAN MAP OF FEBRUARY
27...BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES REMAIN IN BURN BANS. THUS...THERE
HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO BURN BANS...AND NO OTHER COUNTIES HAVE
BURN BANS AT THIS TIME.

RESIDENTS PLANNING ON BURNING SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO
ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED...AND ALSO TO SEE IF ANY
RESTRICTIONS ON HOW AND WHEN TO BURN ARE IN EFFECT. IF BURNING IS
ALLOWED...BE SURE IT IS NOT DONE DURING WINDY DAYS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY...AS THIS COULD RESULT IN A FIRE WHICH COULD EASILY GET
OUT OF CONTROL.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AT CHOKE CANYON AND LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF. THE COMBINED
SYSTEM CAPACITY OF THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIRS REMAINS JUST
ABOVE 30 PERCENT (30.1 PERCENT AS OF MARCH 1). THE CITY OF CORPUS
CHRISTI GOES INTO STAGE 3 OF THEIR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN WHEN
THE COMBINED CAPACITY FALLS TO BELOW 30 PERCENT (ONLY TWO
PERCENTAGE POINTS MORE!). SOME OF THE STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS ARE...

* WATERING (IRRIGATION) IS ALLOWED ONLY ONCE EVERY OTHER WEEK.
  RESIDENTS WILL BE NOTIFIED OF THEIR DESIGNATED WATERING DAY.

* WATERING OF LANDSCAPES BY SPRINKLER IRRIGATION IS NOT ALLOWED BETWEEN
  10 AM AND 6 PM. USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET OR HOSE...OR DRIP
  IRRIGATION SYSTEM WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLES PERMITTED ANY TIME ON ANY
  DAY.

* HOME CAR WASHINGS ARE TO BE DONE ONLY BY USE OF HAND-HELD BUCKET
  OR HOSE EQUIPPED WITH SHUTOFF NOZZLE. USE OF COMMERCIAL CAR
  WASHES ARE STILL ALLOWED ANY TIME.

* MAINTAINING INTEGRITY OF BUILDING FOUNDATION BY USE OF DRIP
  IRRIGATION OR HAND HELD HOSE ONLY IS STILL ALLOWED.

* USE OF POTABLE WATER FOR IRRIGATION OF GOLF COURSES IS PROHIBITED.

RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES NOT COMPLYING WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL
RECEIVE A FINE. MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING ALL STAGES OF WATER
RESTRICTIONS (AND REQUESTS FOR EXEMPTIONS AND VARIANCES) CAN BE
FOUND AT: WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER.

SIMILAR WATER RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE INSTITUTED FOR THE CITY
OF PORTLAND THAT ARE IN EFFECT FOR CORPUS CHRISTI...ONCE THE
COMBINED CAPACITY FALLS TO BELOW 30 PERCENT.

ADDITIONAL MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED AT PORTLAND AND
INGLESIDE. FOR MORE INFORMATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT:

HTTP://PORTLANDTX.COM
HTTP://INGLESIDETX.GOV

ACCORDING TO THE CITY OF VICTORIA WEB PAGE...THE CITY HAS ENDED
THEIR STAGE 1 DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN AS OF FEBRUARY 5.
HOWEVER...RESIDENTS ARE STILL ENCOURAGED TO CONSERVE WATER AT ALL
TIMES.

THE CITY OF LAREDO ALSO REMAINS UNDER VOLUNTARY WATER
RESTRICTIONS...ASKING RESIDENTS TO CONSERVE WATER BUT ALLOW
WATERING AT ANY TIME.

OTHER RESIDENTS IN SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS NO LONGER ARE
SUFFERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN VERY LOW.
WATERING SHOULD BE DONE ONLY TO KEEP SOIL MOISTURE INTACT.
ALSO...ONLY WATER IF RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN RECEIVED FOR A COUPLE
OF WEEKS.

RESIDENTS WHO WATER THEIR LAWNS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR LAWNS FOR
LOWER WATER USE NOW! IF YOU OVER-WATER YOUR LANDSCAPE...YOUR LAWN
WILL REQUIRE MORE WATER TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. THIS COULD RESULT IN
MORE DAMAGE TO YOUR LAWN WHEN THE SUMMER APPROACHES AND YOU ARE
NOT ALLOWED TO WATER YOUR LAWN AS YOU WISH.

ALSO...RESIDENTS WITH SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD MONITOR THEIR
WATERING TO ENSURE THEIR SYSTEM IS WATERING THE LAWN AND NOT THE
SIDEWALK OR STREET. ALSO...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER
WATER DROPLETS...AND AVOID WATERING ON WINDY DAYS. FINALLY...TURN
SOAKER HOSES SO THAT THE HOLES ARE ON THE BOTTOM...FACING THE
GRASS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED ON ANY WATER RESTRICTIONS WHICH
MAY BE IMPOSED FOR THEIR LOCATION...AS ANY VIOLATIONS CAN RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FINES. MORE INFORMATION ON HOW TO CONSERVE WATER
(AND DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS) IS FOUND ON THE CITY WEBSITES
LISTED EARLIER OR AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.

ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA HAVE MAINTAINED EITHER
MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR LOCAL PUBLIC WATER
SYSTEMS (PWS). A LIST OF LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HSA WHICH HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINGWATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

RESIDENTS CAN ALSO CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS OR MEDIA
WHETHER WATER RESTRICTIONS FOR THEIR LOCALE HAVE BEEN
ADDED...REMOVED...OR AMENDED.


AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP VALID ON FEBRUARY 28 SHOWS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL ANOMALIES (-20 MM TO -60 MM) OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA...WITH THE HIGHEST DEFICITS (-40 MM
TO -60 MM) OVER AND NEAR THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS IN THE HSA. NEAR
NORMAL (-20 MM TO +20 MM) TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ANOMALIES (+20
MM TO + 40 MM) EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS.

SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES SHOW NEAR NORMAL VALUES (30 TO 70
PERCENT) OVER ALL OF THE HSA IN DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY (NO
NOTABLE CHANGE). SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PERCENTILES (70 TO 80
PERCENT) EXIST OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA.

CROP MOISTURE INDICES (VALID FOR THE WEEK ENDING FEBRUARY
21)...SHOW SLIGHTLY DRY/FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS (-0.9 TO
+0.9) OVER ALL OF THE HSA. THUS...MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LOWER
INDICES.

THE TEXAS CATTLE HERD GREW LAST YEAR AFTER EIGHT YEARS OF
CONSECUTIVE DECLINE CAUSED BY DROUGHT. STATEWIDE BOVINE
INVENTORY HIT A 48-YEAR LOW IN 2014...BUT REBOUNDED SIX PERCENT
ACCORDING TO JANUARY 2015 NUMBERS FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE. THAT IS WELCOME NEWS FOR RANCHERS WHO HAVE SUFFERED
UNDER RECORD DROUGHT THAT HAS KILLED FEED CROPS...WITHERED
PASTURES AND FORCED MANY TO LIGHTEN THEIR HERDS FOR ALMOST TWO
DECADES. THE DRY WEATHER SINCE 2011 REALLY DECIMATED THESE HERDS.
SINCE THE STATE GOT SOME RAIN IN 2014...GRASSES GREW...AND A LOT
OF THESE RANCHERS STARTED RETAINING HEIFERS. BUT THE DRY-SPELL
IS NOT OVER HERE YET. THE USDA DECLARED 156 TEXAS COUNTIES DROUGHT
DISASTER AREAS LAST MONTH. THAT IS DOWN FROM 180 IN 2014...209 IN
2013...AND 254 IN 2011 (ALL OF THEM)...THE STATE`S DRIEST YEAR ON
RECORD. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS LAST YEAR GRACED MOST OF EAST
TEXAS...A REGION THAT PROVIDES AN ESSENTIAL RESOURCE TO TEXAS
RANCHERS...HAY. BEYOND ABUNDANT HAY...RANCHERS ARE REBUILDING
HERDS BECAUSE BEEF PRICES ARE UP. LARGE-SCALE SELL-OFFS OF RECENT
YEARS LOWERED PRICES...BUT NOW SMALLER HERDS ARE FACING RISING
DEMAND FOR BEEF...AND THE MARKET IS REBOUNDING.

IN A RECENT ARTICLE IN THE HOUSTON CHRONICLE...A RAINY WINTER
FAILED TO BRING FULL REPRIEVE...AND ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE LONE
STAR STATE REMAINS IN DROUGHT. WHAT IS WORSE IS THAT EL NINO...THE
GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON THAT JUST LAST SUMMER PROMISED TO REFILL
STATEWIDE RESERVOIRS COME WINTER...DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE COMING AT
ALL. THAT IS BAD NEWS FOR TEXAS RESERVOIRS...WHICH SIT AT 64.9
PERCENT FULL (LESS THAN A PERCENT ABOVE THE RECORD LOW). OVER TWO
DOZEN MAN-MADE LAKES...USED TO STORE WATER FOR CITIES...
AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY...ARE LESS THAN 40 PERCENT FULL.

IN A RECENT ARTICLE FROM AGRILIFE TODAY...DUE TO LOW PRICES...MANY
FARMERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE COTTON PLANTINGS THIS YEAR...AND
THE MOST LIKELY REPLACEMENT WILL BE GRAIN SORGHUM. IN THE FACE OF
MUCH LOWER COMMODITY PRICES...FARMERS ARE FACING REAL CHALLENGES
DECIDING WHAT TO PLANT AND WHAT NOT TO PLANT IN ORDER TO SEE A
POSITIVE RETURN FOR 2015. BY ALL INDICATIONS...TEXAS FARMERS WILL
LIKELY BE PLANTING CONSIDERABLY LESS COTTON THIS YEAR AND MORE
GRAIN SORGHUM. GRAIN SORGHUM VERSUS COTTON IS A PRETTY VIABLE
OPTION. THE STRENGTH OF CASH MARKET FOR SORGHUM HAS BEEN VERY
POSITIVE THROUGH THE WINTER AND IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE SPRING.
OTHER ALTERNATIVES WOULD BE SUNFLOWERS...SOYBEANS...SESAME AND
CANOLA.

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS ACCUMULATED DURING FEBRUARY 2015
PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION:

FOR THE COASTAL BEND DISTRICT:

* SOIL MOISTURE WAS ADEQUATE. WARM...DRY DAYS WERE FOLLOWED BY
  COLD WEATHER AGAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH.

* WET FIELD CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO HINDER FIELDWORK.
  HOWEVER...SOME PRODUCERS WERE PREPARING FOR PLANTING AS FIELDS
  STARTED TO DRY OUT. STILL...MANY WERE STILL TOO WET FOR
  FIELDWORK.

* PREPARATIONS FOR SPRING PLANTING WERE SLOW-GOING AS NOT ALL
  FIELDS WERE DRY ENOUGH TO GET EQUIPMENT INTO. BUT MOST GROWERS
  WELCOMED THE WET CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN SEVERAL YEARS SINCE A
  GROWING SEASON STARTED WITH A FULL MOISTURE PROFILE.

* SOME CORN WAS BEING PLANTED...AND FERTILIZERS AND OTHER
  PREPARATIONS WERE BEING MADE ON FIELDS GOING TO GRAIN SORGHUM
  AND COTTON. GROWERS WERE TOPDRESSING WHEAT. SOME FUNGICIDES WERE
  ALSO BEING APPLIED TO WHEAT.

* RANCHERS WERE GRAZING CATTLE ON WINTER PASTURES WITH WARM-
  SEASON WEEDS ALREADY EMERGING. CATTLE REMAINED IN GOOD
  CONDITION. SOME LIVESTOCK WERE BEING FED HAY AND PROTEIN.

* IN SOME AREAS...WINTER ANNUAL FORAGES GREENED UP AND WERE
  GROWING AFTER MUCH-NEEDED SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
  HOWEVER...IN OTHER AREAS...WINTER ANNUAL FORAGES WERE ONLY
  SLOWLY GROWING DUE TO CONTINUED WET WEATHER AND LACK OF
  SUNSHINE.

* HAY AND FORAGE PRODUCERS WERE APPLYING LIME. SOME PRODUCERS
  WERE INVOLVED IN GOPHER CONTROL IN HAY PASTURES.

* GRAIN SORGHUM PRODUCERS HAD ISSUES PLANTING DUE TO WET
  CONDITIONS. AERIAL SPRAYING WAS GOING STRONG AS FARMERS IN SOME
  AREAS TRIED TO STAY ON TOP OF CONTROLLING WEEDS DESPITE WET
  CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

* EARLY PEACH VARIETIES WERE BLOOMING...BUT MANY WARM-SEASON
  PERENNIALS HAD NOT FROZEN BACK AND STILL HAD COLOR AND
  NUTRITIONAL VALUE.


FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES LA SALLE
MCMULLEN COUNTIES):

* IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...WHEAT AND OATS WERE IN FAIR
  TO GOOD CONDITION. PRODUCERS CONTINUED PREPARING FOR PLANTING.

* CONTINUED GROWTH OF WINTER ANNUALS PROVIDED GOOD GRAZING FOR
  LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE. RANGELAND AND PASTURES REMAINED IN FAIR
  CONDITION. STOCK-TANK WATER LEVELS VARIED...WITH SOME TANKS NEAR
  CAPACITY BUT MANY STILL LOW.

* SOIL MOISTURE WAS 100 PERCENT ADEQUATE IN ATASCOSA...FRIO AND
  MCMULLEN COUNTIES...AND 50 PERCENT ADEQUATE IN LA SALLE COUNTY.

* POTATO PLANTING CONTINUED...AND SPRING WHEAT AND OATS PLANTING
  WAS BEING COMPLETED. WINTER OATS WERE DOING WELL.

* SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING CONTINUED AS THE CALVING SEASON PROGRESSED.
  CATTLE BODY CONDITION SCORES REMAINED FAIR. TOPSOIL MOISTURE
  CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY ADEQUATE...WHILE SOME COUNTIES REPORTED
  VERY LOW SUBSOIL MOISTURE.

* IN LA SALLE COUNTY...RANGE AND PASTURES GREENED UP. GRAZING FOR
  LIVESTOCK REMAINED FAIR WITH STEADY SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
  CONTINUING. CATTLE BODY CONDITION SCORES REMAINED FAIR.


IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES DUVAL...JIM
WELLS AND KLEBERG COUNTIES):

* SOIL MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY ADEQUATE. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF HAY
  AND PROTEIN CONTINUED TO ALLOW RANGELAND AND PASTURES TO
  RECOVER.

* GROWERS IN KLEBERG AND KENEDY COUNTIES WORKED ON FIELD
  PREPARATIONS FOR COTTON AND GRAIN PLANTING.

* WARMER WEATHER AND DRY FIELD CONDITIONS ALLOWED ROW CROP FARMERS
  TO CATCH UP ON FIELDWORK...APPLY FERTILIZER AND SPRAY FOR WEEDS.

* JIM WELLS COUNTY FARMERS WERE PLANTING CORN AS FIELD CONDITIONS
  ALLOWED. WINTER WHEAT WAS IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION AND
  PROMISING GOOD YIELDS. ALSO IN JIM WELLS COUNTY...SOIL MOISTURE
  WAS GOOD...BUT RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE NOT SHOWING MUCH
  IMPROVEMENT DUE TO PERSISTENTLY LOW SOIL TEMPERATURES.

* SOIL MOISTURE WAS 40 TO 50 PERCENT ADEQUATE IN DUVAL COUNTY...
  AROUND 100 PERCENT ADEQUATE IN KLEBERG AND KENEDY COUNTIES.
  RANGE AND PASTURES REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION IN THESE COUNTIES.

IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH DISTRICT (INCLUDES WEBB COUNTY):

* SOME COUNTIES RECEIVED LIGHT RAINS...WHICH HELPED OATS AND COASTAL
  BERMUDA GRASS. SOME EARLY PLANTED WHEAT APPROACHED BOOT STAGE
  AND EARLY SEED DEVELOPMENT.

* CABBAGE HARVESTING RESUMED LATE IN THE WEEK...AND SPINACH
  PRODUCERS CONTINUED HARVESTING THE SECOND CUTTINGS OF BOTH FRESH
  AND PROCESSING VARIETIES. FARMERS WERE PREPARING FIELDS FOR
  PLANTING GRAIN SORGHUM AND CORN.

* ONIONS AND CARROTS PROGRESSED WELL WITHOUT IRRIGATION. DRYLAND
  WHEAT AND OAT PRODUCERS REPORTED GOOD TO EXCELLENT CROP
  CONDITIONS.

* EXCELLENT FORAGE IN SOME AREAS KEPT SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF
  LIVESTOCK MINIMAL. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE ABLE TO
  SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING AS RANGELAND AND
  PASTURES IMPROVED. HOWEVER...SOME PRODUCERS WERE STILL SUPPLYING
  MINERAL BLOCKS AND HAY TO CATTLE.

* SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE 80 TO 100 PERCENT ADEQUATE IN
  DIMMIT...WEBB...AND ZAVALA COUNTIES...AND 75 TO 80 PERCENT SHORT
  IN ZAPATA COUNTY.

* WEBB COUNTY RANCHERS WERE SLOWLY BUT SURELY REBUILDING HERDS AND
  RETAINING HEIFERS FOR BREEDING.


FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
ACCORDING TO THE 5 DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE TEXAS
INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC) ON FEBRUARY 28...THERE IS A
LOW FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE HSA...WITH A MODERATE FIRE DANGER
OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL BEND (NOT
INCLUDING KLEBERG AND MOST OF NUECES COUNTIES). THE FIRE DANGER
HAS BEEN LOW DUE TO COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF THE HSA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST
MONTH (JIM WELLS AND DUVAL COUNTIES SAW THEIR AVERAGES RISE A
CATEGORY). LA SALLE COUNTY STILL HAD A COUNTY AVERAGE KBDI VALUE
ABOVE 400. AS OF MARCH 1 2015...THE FOLLOWING KBDI COUNTY AVERAGES
WERE OBSERVED:

  0 TO 200: CALHOUN...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...ARANSAS...SAN
            PATRICIO...AND NUECES COUNTIES.

200 TO 300: KLEBERG...WEBB...GOLIAD...BEE AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

300 TO 400: MCMULLEN...JIM WELLS AND DUVAL COUNTIES.

400 TO 500: LA SALLE COUNTY.

500 TO 600: NONE.

600 TO 700: NONE.

700 TO 800: NONE.

KBDI VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT ONE OR
TWO WEEKS DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE THAN LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL OVER NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS DURING
FEBRUARY...INCLUDING THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN PORTIONS OF THE HSA. AS
STATED IN THE SYNOPSIS...MOST OF THE HSA SAW NO MORE THAN 75
PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL RAINFALL DURING FEBRUARY. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NORMAL RAINFALL DURING FEBRUARY IS LESS THAN
2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE HSA. THUS...RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2015
(WHERE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED) ARE STILL NOT VERY
LARGE.

FORTUNATELY...MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL
(90 PERCENT OR MORE) DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS. HOWEVER...ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY (AND AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THAT COUNTY...IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI WATERSHED) WHERE 90 DAY
PERCENTAGES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 50 AND 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS IS
WHY SIGNIFICANT RESERVOIR RECHARGE HAS NOT OCCURRED FOR THE CORPUS
CHRISTI WATER SUPPLY. ALSO...UNLESS MORE RAIN IS RECEIVED IN THIS
AREA SOON...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY.

DESPITE A GENERALLY WARM START TO FEBRUARY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WERE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE HSA. DURING FEBRUARY...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 3.1 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT CORPUS CHRISTI...2.5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT VICTORIA...AND 2.9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
LAREDO.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
FEBRUARY...SO FAR FOR 2015...AND THE FOR THE 2015 WATER YEAR WHICH
BEGAN ON OCTOBER 1 2014. ALL VALUES ARE IN INCHES...RAINFALL
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL ARE SHOWN IN PARENTHESIS:

                                                  2015 WATER YEAR
                    FEBRUARY            2015        10/01/2014 -
                                                    01/31/2015

CORPUS CHRISTI     1.41 (-0.52)     3.45  (-0.02)  12.96 (+2.05)

VICTORIA           0.98 (-1.10)     4.05  (-0.55)  12.63 (-1.61)

LAREDO AIRPORT     0.29 (-0.65)     0.88  (-0.96)   3.83 (-2.00)

FOR THE THREE CLIMATE STATIONS...THE 2015 PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE: 99.4 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...88.0 PERCENT AT
VICTORIA...AND 47.8 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

THE 2015 WATER YEAR PERCENTAGES THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY 2015
ARE: 118.8 PERCENT AT CORPUS CHRISTI...88.7 PERCENT AT VICTORIA...
AND 65.7 PERCENT AT LAREDO.

IF THERE IS AN EL-NINO EVENT BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SPRING...IT WILL
BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. WHILE POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
ANOMALIES STILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN...NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE SST`S ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WAS STILL FORECASTING ABOUT A
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR EL-NINO CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE LATE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...WITH ENSO-
NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY FAVORED THEREAFTER. CPC STILL HAS AN
EL-NINO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. OBVIOUSLY
HOWEVER...THIS CANNOT LAST MUCH LONGER WITH SPRING OCCURRING IN
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) IS BASED ON SST DEPARTURES FROM
AVERAGES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION...AND IS THE PRINCIPAL MEASURE FOR
MONITORING...ASSESSING AND PREDICTING ENSO. THE MOST RECENT ONI
VALUE (NOVEMBER 2014 - JANUARY 2015) WAS +0.7 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THIS IS ABOVE THE +0.5 CELSIUS CRITERION FOR EL-NINO EVENTS. THIS
MAKES THE THIRD THREE MONTH INTERVAL OF EL-NINO TYPE TEMPERATURES.
TWO MORE THREE MONTH INTERVALS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TO BECOME
AN OFFICIAL EL-NINO EVENT (ABNORMALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES +0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER NEED TO BE PRESENT
DURING FIVE CONSECUTIVE THREE MONTH INTERVALS).


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MARCH 2 THROUGH
MARCH 8) IS AS FOLLOWS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY
TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE RESTRICTED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE HSA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH
THROUGH MARCH 2 THROUGH MARCH 8...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL REGIONS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (MARCH 2 THROUGH
MARCH 8) IS AS FOLLOWS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...BUT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
(BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES) FOR MARCH 7 AND MARCH 8.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 9 THROUGH
MARCH 15...CALLS FOR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST OF THE HSA HAVING NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE).

THE MARCH 2015 TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL OUTLOOKS...ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 28...CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR NEAR/ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTING FOR A WEAK EL-NINO EVENT FOR
THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO...THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROMISING. THE THREE MONTH RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH 2015 THROUGH MAY 2015...ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
19...SHOWS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (TYPICAL FOR AN EL-NINO EVENT).

THE MARCH 2015 DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 28...CALLS FOR
DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST (AND/OR INTENSIFY) OVER THE CURRENT
DROUGHT AREAS...BUT NOT SPREAD ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
HSA.

SIMILARLY...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH MAY 31 (AND
ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 19)...CALLS FOR DROUGHT TO PERSIST AND/OR
INTENSIFY OVER THE CURRENT DROUGHT AREAS SHOWN ON THE FEBRUARY 24
DROUGHT MONITOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO INDICATION OF DROUGHT RE-
DEVELOPING OVER ANY OTHER PORTION OF THE HSA.

THE LAGGED SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2015
CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE
HSA...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES (-20 MM TO -40 MM) OVER
THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE HSA DURING
FEBRUARY...RIVERS AND CREEKS RETURNED NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
BY THE END OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS
IN THE HSA ARE RUNNING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS STREAMFLOW MAP ON MARCH 1...RIVERS WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS INCLUDE THE GRADUALUPE RIVER...THE SAN ANTONIO
RIVER...THE ARANSAS RIVER...AND THE NUECES RIVER AT THREE RIVERS.
THE RIO GRANDE IS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS ARE OBSERVED
OVER THE HSA.

FOR THE MOST PART...FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA WERE
BETWEEN 5.5 FEET (436 CFS) AND 6.5 FEET (742 CFS) DURING
FEBRUARY. THE CITY OF VICTORIA CAN OBTAIN ITS WATER FROM THE
RIVER WHEN FLOWS ARE ABOVE 150 CFS (ABOUT 4.2 FEET). AS STATED
EARLIER...THE CITY OF VICTORIA REMOVED ITS STAGE 1 RESTRICTIONS
EARLIER IN FEBRUARY.

WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE WATERSHEDS...RESERVOIR
LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER CRITICAL SOUTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS. IN
FACT...AS STATED EARLIER...THE COMBINED CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS
CHRISTI RESERVOIR SYSTEM IS NEARLY 30 PERCENT...AND WILL LIKELY
FALL TO BELOW THAT VALUE SHORTLY (REQUIRING STAGE 3 WATER
RESTRICTIONS). OTHER PERTINENT RESERVOIRS DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT
RISES AS WELL. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE CURRENT (AS OF MARCH
1) AND PREVIOUS LEVELS AS OF FEBRUARY 1) AT PERTINENT SOUTH
TEXAS RESERVOIRS.


RESERVOIR      NORMAL   LATEST  PERCENT  PREVIOUS  CHANGE
                POOL     POOL  CAPACITY    POOL     (FT)
CHOKE CANYON    220.5    191.7   24.1     192.2    -0.5
LAKE C. C.       94.0     85.4   46.2      85.6    -0.2
LAKE TEXANA      44.0     41.3   85.0      42.0    -0.7
COLETO CREEK     98.0     93.7   N/A       93.3    +0.4
CANYON DAM      909.0    897.6    77      897.5    +0.1
LAKE AMISTAD   1117.0   1087.8    52     1087.8    +0.0

THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI RESERVOIR
SYSTEM AS OF MARCH 1 IS AT 30.1 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.7 PERCENTAGE
POINTS LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TO BRING RESERVOIRS CLOSER TO NORMAL POOL LEVELS BEFORE SUMMER...
IT WILL TAKE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM (COMBINED WITH RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE) TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SUFFICIENT RUN-OFF (LIKELY RESULTING IN
FLOODING). UNFORTUNATELY...ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OR BE PRESENT BY LATE SPRING...WHICH MEANS A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL (WHEN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER OVER SOUTH TEXAS). HOPEFULLY...THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE FIRST PART OF SPRING COMES TO
FRUITION...AS SIGNIFICANT RESERVOIR RECHARGE OCCURS.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
APRIL 2015.


RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/?N=DROUGHT

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MONITOR.HTML

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU

TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.WATERDATAFORTEXAS.ORG/DROUGHT/

VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML

AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/

TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG

TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (WATER RESTRICTIONS):
WWW.TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV/DRINKINATER/TROT/LOCATION.HTML

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER DEPARTMENT...
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/GOVERNMENT/WATER

CORPUS CHRISTI WATER CONSERVATION
WWW.CCTEXAS.COM/ASSETS/DEPARTMENTS/WATER/FILES/WATERCONSERVATIONPLAN.PDF

VICTORIA WATER CONSERVATION:
WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG/PIO/PDFS/WATERSAVINGMETHODS.PDF

LAREDO WATER RESTRICTIONS AND CONSERVATION...
WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US/UTILITIES05/ORDINANCE/2009_ORDINANCE.PDF

CITY OF VICTORIA WEB SITE...WWW.VICTORIATX.ORG

CITY OF LAREDO WEB SITE...WWW.CI.LAREDO.TX.US

CITY OF PORTLAND WEB SITE...WWW.PORTLANDTX.COM

TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORTS...WWW.TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
IBWC...HTTP://IBWC.STATE.GOV/


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
426 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

GW





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.