Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260335 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1135 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIPPING SOUTH OF PA THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR SUGGEST DWINDLING BAND OF RAIN ASSOC WITH FGEN FORCING IN THE 8-7H LYR WILL ONLY JUST GRAZE SOUTHERN SOMERSET/BEDFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW EVEN REPORTED AT GARRETT CO AIRPORT...BUT PRECIP RTS/EVAP COOLING PROBABLY WON/T BE SIG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW IN PA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE S TIER AND BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BLEND OF LATEST LAMP/RAP OUTPUT SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE U20S ACROSS THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE LOW ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MD BORDER. HAVE ADDED FROST TO THE FCST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MCLEAR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS OVR UPSTATE NY THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY AFTN. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS EXPECT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST ATTM. 18Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DID BACK OFF ON THE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR JST OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN AND SLEET IS MAINLY SOUTH OF PA NOW. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SMALL SYSTEM OVER THE OH VLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD VFR. MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. WED-THU...NO SIG WX.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN

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