Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 010942 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 542 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... A FEW AREAS OF SCT-BKN STRATO CU AND ALTO CU WERE DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION FROM INTERSTATE 80...SOUTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM OHIO THIS MORNING AND FURTHER DIMINISH THE ALREADY LIGHT NW BREEZE. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WET PAVEMENT FROM YESTERDAY/S SNOW HAS FROZEN UP. TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT- FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILD CARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EXPECT A FEW LOWER CLDS AT BFD AND JST EARLY TODAY. SOME HIGHER CLDS AT TIMES AT OTHER SITES. STILL SOME LOWER CIGS AT IPT AND VSBY DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES...EVEN WITH A WEST WIND. OTHER THAN THESE SITES EARLY TODAY...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. OVERALL...A NICE DAY COMPARED TO THE TYPE OF WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LATE NOV. OUTLOOK... THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING. SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/. REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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