Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 051854 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD. LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING. SITES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF TE TIME. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN

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