Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 242001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 401 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF OF THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CU FIELD SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING. SHOULD MAKE FOR A GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL SEE BELOW FREEZING OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA AND FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR SE ZONES. SAT MORNING MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING IN SE ZONES UNTIL THE FALL. RECORD LOW FOR THE 25TH AT KMDT IS 31F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... STILL TRACKING WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF CWA ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. POPS TAPER OFF AS YOU GO NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS STATE COLLEGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH SHOULD RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING. POPS DECREASE SAT NIGHT WITH MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WAVE SLIDING W-E THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH PRECIP SHIELD ALRAEDY RECEDING TOWARD THE SE BY 12Z SUN...AND EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX FOR REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD. BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE NC COAST BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND CIGS WILL LOWER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST TO LOW VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SCT -SHRASN WEST TO -SHRA EAST. WED...GENERALLY VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST /UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES/ WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH PA BOF...THE 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028- 035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...ROSS SHORT TERM...ROSS LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...EVANEGO FIRE WEATHER...

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