Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 181110 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 710 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THIN CIRRUS SHOULD SLINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...LEAVING ALMOST FULL SUN TODAY. SOME DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE AS THE TEMPS RISE VERY NICELY...WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TAKING A RUN AT 80F. THE MAIN STORY TODAY IS THE COLD/DRY FRONT WHICH WILL DROP DOWN FROM NY ABOUT NOON. WHILE NOT MAKING ANY PRECIP AND FEW CLOUDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD BE 25-30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST... MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO NR 20KTS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ. OUTLOOK... MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY. TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE DAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS MEET THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO JUST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF REALLY LOW RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD FIRE WEATHER...

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