Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190215 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1015 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST... MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE LOWER SUSQ EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE SE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS NOTABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS /VEERING TO EAST...THEN SE/ FROM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH JUST SCT AND DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VEIL OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. VFR AGAIN FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AND FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AS SE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 21Z AS WARM ADVECTION THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN QUICKLY SPREADS IN. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OUTLOOK... MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR LIKELY IN THE MORNING... POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO OCNL MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PENN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TUE-THU...MVFR AND OCNL IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN /AND SNOW/. VFR TO OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SHRASN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SE PENN AIRFIELDS. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/RXR AVIATION...RXR FIRE WEATHER...

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