Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 052115 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 515 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... SLOW MOVING FRONT ALONG PA NY BORDER WILL DROP SWD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES WILL LEAD TO SOME BRIGHTENING/PSUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGIONS. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NW COUNTIES. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BATCH...OBTUSE SHORTWAVE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING AREA OF MAINLY SCTD CONVECTION ACROSS WRN MTNS INTO EVENING HOURS AS TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME INTO THIS EVENING...THEN DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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