Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261830 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NOW. THE SPRINKLES WILL VANISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING BUT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS LOOKS DESTINED TO CONTINUE EDGING SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THE REGION. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER UNDER A SUBTLE AREA OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE SYSTEM APPROACHING NOW AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLATED FOR MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING OVER THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FORECAST LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE COVERAGE OF THE QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. THE SREF/GEFS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN A SMALL CHANCE AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH MARGINALLY CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOW LEVELS...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IF THE SHOWERS MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY MONDAY. NO ACCUMS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH BASED CEILINGS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF BRADFORD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JOHNSTOWN. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WED...NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE

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