Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060314 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1114 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 10 PM UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN TO JUST NORTH OF HARRISBURG. THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY IS EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS DRIFTING SE. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CURRENTLY BACK THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL CONTINUE EAST BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 2/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 06 AND 12Z. IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CONDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH KBFD AND EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS INCLUDING KJST...KAOO...KUNV AND KMDT WILL BE RAINFREE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL EXIT KLNS BY 0430Z. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY BY EARLY WED WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. CUT BACK ON THE FOG AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN PA SITES WHERE SHOWERS WERE MORE ISOLATED TUE EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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