Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 272240 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 640 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATE THIS WEEK A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A RETURN OF COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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22Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTH OF PA. REGIONAL RADAR STILL SHOWING SCT SHRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AT 22Z ASSOC WITH POCKET OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. COOLING/STABILIZING BLYR AND DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. BASED ON LATEST HRRR...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHRA MOST PLACES BTWN 00Z-01Z. A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON LATEST MDL GUIDANCE...WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE N MTNS OVERNIGHT. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION...MCLDY SKIES AND A NW BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH OVERNIGHT. BLEND OF CONSALL AND LATEST LAMP SUPPORT LOWS FROM THE M30S OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L40S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WED. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD CREATE STRATOCU. A BRIGHTER MORNING EXPECTED FURTHER EAST DUE TO DRYING/DOWNSLOPING FLOW. DIURNAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH LINGERING COOL AIR ALOFT...SHOULD YIELD A FAIR AMT OF CU ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUE AFTN WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MCLDY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO PTCLDY FURTHER EAST. TEMPS SHOULD CREEP CLOSER TO AVERAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 8H TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS...TO M60S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST 00Z-06Z MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/. PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY MORNING. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAD A SHOWER AT THE OFFICE AT 4 PM...WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE SUN SETS...AND THE UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SE. MAIN CHANGE EARLY ON WAS TO HOLD ONTO THE WIND AND SHOWERS FOR AN EXTRA HOUR OR SO. THE OTHER CHANGE WAS TO UP THE WINDS SOME ON TUE...AND EARLIER. THIS BASED ON THE GRADIENT...TIME OF SUNRISE...AND RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT. 21Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. STRATO-CU CEILINGS IN THE 3000-6000` RANGE ARE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE FLYING AREA. WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A TENDENCY FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. OUTLOOK... WED...NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN

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