Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 052321 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 721 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 7 PM UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80...IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF A WEAK AND DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THIS EAST-WEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL THE WAY BACK TO ILLINOIS. NAM ARW AND NMM CONCENTRATE MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE HRRR CREATES WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN ORGANIZED MCS AND DROPS IT SE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06-09Z. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...LITTLE OF WHICH HAS ACTUALLY FIRED OFF. IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE FAR NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO PA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT VFR MUCH OF THE TIME. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER

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