Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 241419 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1019 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCT FLAT DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AS BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STILL QUITE STEEP DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. SEEING EFFICIENT MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH 20-30KT GUSTS COMMON IN LATEST REGIONAL METARS. WARMING ALOFT WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUD TREND AT THAT TIME. INCREASED AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY/S VERY CHILLY READINGS. HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM ABOUT 40 ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE COLDEST TEMPS UNTIL THIS COMING FALL...AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. LOWS AT DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE MTNS OF THE NORTH...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE...LEADING TO THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN. RECORD LOW FOR THE 25TH AT KMDT IS 31F. HAVE INCLUDED FROST IN THE FCST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT AM AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ACTIVE GROWING SEASON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. LATEST 00Z-06Z OPER MDL DATA AND SREF/GEFS ALL SHOW A SLOWLY WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY TO THE N CAR COAST SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO UPPER LVL CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. THIS SFC LOW TRACK BRUSHES THE SWRN THIRD TO ONE HALF OF PA WITH LIGHT RAIN LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. SREF AND GFS/GEFS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WITH THE LIGHT RAIN REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES /IN COMPARISON TO THE NAM/EC/. FCST CONTINUES TO REFLECTS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND LOW CHC POPS EXTENDING TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF WET SNOW CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS...AND WET BULBS BELOW THAT LEVEL WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD SAGS GRADUALLY TO THE SE EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE ENDING IN MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN PA BY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS ECENS AND GEFS BOTH SHOW UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG BRIEFLY WOBBLING WESTWARD TOWARD PA BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT FOR GOOD BY MIDWEEK. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...BOTH ECENS AND GEFS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST. UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PA OR PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT-BKN MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AND WDSPRD VFR BY THIS AFTN OVR THE NW/W/C MOUNTAINS...AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...EVENTUALLY OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE TONIGHT. EXPECT FQNT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 290-320 DEGREES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND DROP AOB 5KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM MID MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE NC COAST BY SUN EVE. RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NRN/NERN AIRSPACE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BRING A COOL NW REGIME TO CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST TO LOW VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SCT -SHRASN WEST TO -SHRA EAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST /UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES/ WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH PA BOF...THE 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL FIRE WEATHER...

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