Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280753 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 353 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN OUT. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LEFT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FCST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NOW. SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS TODAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY OUT...GOOD CONDITIONS FOR KITES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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LOOKING AT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD. NOT SEEING A THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE SE AT THIS POINT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FCST.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME CHANCE OF A SHOWER STILL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIME FRAME...AS THERE WAS ONLY A FEW SPOTS THAT HAD THEM STILL IN THE FCST. OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE LONGER TERM. SE AREAS COULD SEE AROUND .25 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT CENTRAL PA MAY BE MAINLY BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM AND THE CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA COULD SEE .25 INCHES OF QPF. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE LAST TWO DAYS. BLOCKY/AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO MID ATLC STATES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A DISTINCT AND RATHER POTENT SHOT OF NRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SSE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...SHOULD CAPTURE THE SFC LOW /PROGGED BY MOST MODEL AND ENS GUIDANCE TO BE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THURSDAY MORNING/. PHASING OF THESE FEATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS EAST-NERLY FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER LATE THUR INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND ERN PENN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF OVER 1 INCH NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ COAST WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWWD UP/OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY. THUS CONTINUED THE HIEST POPS DURING THE PERIOD FOR WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN...WES RELUCTANT IN CLEARING OUR PCPN TOO FAST FRIDAY MORNING. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO BRING SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS BACK FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS 025-050 CONTINUE TO WRAP SWWD OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE AROUND UPPER LVL LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT JST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE EARLY TODAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLGT CATS LKLY THIS AFTN. SFC WINDS FROM 300-330 WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER THE ERN AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT-WED WITH NO SIG WX EXPECTED. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE/MARTIN NEAR TERM...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER/MARTIN AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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