Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260952 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 552 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SCATTERED MID...AND A SHIELD OF MAINLY THIN...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE SE THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN. EAST-WEST ROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING STRATO CU BUT NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SPRINKLES...OR PERHAPS A FEW STRAY BRIEF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE U20S ACRS THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH. 00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/. COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL. SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH 10Z...A 3500-4500 DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER A BLANKET OF MID CLOUDS. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...THESE WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN LESS THAN 8 MPH THROUGH 15Z. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ACROSS THESE AREAS TO 10G18MPH. THE CENTRAL AND SE WILL SEE FEW-SCT FLAT CU DEVELOP WITH N/NW WINDS OF 8-10 MPH. CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...NO SIG WX. THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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