Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240624 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 224 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... 1045 PM... CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DISAPPEARING ON SCHEDULE. FREEZING TEMPS THEREFORE STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE AREAS WHICH HAVE ENTERED THE GROWING SEASON. EARLIER UPDATE... ALL IS LOOKING GOOD AS OF 730 PM. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND THE SKY SHOULD START TO CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREV... FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING BEHIND 5H SHORTWAVE TROF IS BRINGING DIMINISHING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH IN MANY AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...AND EVEN WITH SOME WIND SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. HAVE UPGRADED PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE WARNING WHILE NUDGING MINS DOWNWARD TOWARDS LATEST GUIDANCE...GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1F DECREASE FROM PREVIOUSLY ISSUED VALUES. CONTINUED LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER ON. AREAS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO THEIR LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WE MAY STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF LOW CIGS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS VERY COLD 850 MB AIR FLOWS OVER THE LAKES. BUILDING SFC RIDGE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES EVEN TO THE NW MTNS LATER ON FRIDAY. 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD BLW NORMAL WILL KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED INSOLATION WILL MEAN MOST SPOTS END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS BY FRI AFTN...AS DEEPENING BLYR ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS FRIDAY NIGHT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WIND BENEATH SFC RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. SREF/GEFS BOTH INDICATE A HIGH PROB OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST CONSALL MINS RANGE FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE L30S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RECORD LOW FOR THE 25TH AT KMDT IS 31F. HAVE INCLUDED FROST IN THE FCST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT AM AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ACTIVE GROWING SEASON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. MED RANGE MDL DATA ALL SHOW WEAKENING LOW PRES TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO UPPER LVL CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. BULK OF 12Z MDL DATA...INCLUDING ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM...ALL INDICATE A SFC LOW TRACK THAT JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN PA WITH RAIN LATE SAT. MEANWHILE...GFS/GEFS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WITH RAIN REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. CURRENT FCST REFLECTS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND LOW CHC POPS EXTENDING TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GLANCE AT MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF WET SNOW CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COS. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS ECENS AND GEFS BOTH SHOW UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG BRIEFLY WOBBLING WESTWARD TOWARD PA BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT FOR GOOD BY MIDWEEK. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...BOTH ECENS AND GEFS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST. UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PA OR PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL 4-6SM -SHSN OVER THE NRN AIRSPACE WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NW FLOW PATTERN SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AND WDSPRD VFR LATER THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE TONIGHT. EXPECT FQNT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 290-320 DEGREES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND DROP AOB 5KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM MID MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE NC COAST BY SUN EVE. RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NRN/NERN AIRSPACE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BRING A COOL NW REGIME TO CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST TO LOW VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SCT -SHRASN WEST TO -SHRA EAST.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH PA BOF...THE 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035- 036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU AVIATION...STEINBUGL FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO/STEINBUGL

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