Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 012148 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 548 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... WIDELY SCT SHRA NOTED ON RADAR AT 22Z ALONG SFC TROUGH/PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS/ RUNNING FROM ARND KBGM SOUTH THRU ARND KHGR. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DWINDLE AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM NY STATE COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLD -SHRA ALONG SFC TROF OVR THE EASTERN COUNTIES BTWN 00-04Z. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT. THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN THE SERN COS...AND MAY STAY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. HAVE MADE MIN TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER THERE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR IN AOO/MDT/LNS IF IT RAINS BEFORE SUNSET. GROWING SEASON NOT YET UNDERWAY IN THE NRN MTNS - STILL 3 WEEKS AWAY FOR THEM. EVEN IF THERE IS SOME PATCHY FROST UP THERE IT WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT THERE. WON/T EVEN PUT IT IN THE GRIDS. SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER AND CERTAINLY MORE MILD THAN TODAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU POPPING UP. THE WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIP TO THE EAST. BUT...THE MODELS DO STILL MAKE TWO OR THREE SPECKLES OF PRECIP OR TWO IN THE EAST AND ONE SPECKLE OF QPF IN THE LAURELS/SC MTNS. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN MENTIONING IT FOR QUITE A WHILE...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF WIDELY WIDELY WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA IN THERE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD A WEAK ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL LAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER. ESPECIALLY AS THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM FORMING OF CONVECTION THAT GETS FUNNELED EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...BUT SHOWERS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION SHOULD THEN DRY OUT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES DON/T HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE KEPT ONLY A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE TIME BEING RAIN FREE. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND MDT CU VISIBLE OUT THE WINDOW. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BFD LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE ANY PRECIP/REDUCTIONS. SHRA WILL LIKELY DROP FROM KIPT- KUNV-KJST EARLY THIS AFTN /DEVELOPING 17-19Z/ TO THE S/E THROUGH 00Z. BY 02-03Z...ANY SHRA SHOULD BE DONE/DISSIPATED OVER THE SERN TERMINALS. DUE TO ISOLD/SCT NATURE...WILL NOT CARRY A PREVAILING GROUP FOR FLIGHT CAT REDUCTIONS UNTIL THE SHRA ARE CLOSING IN. VCSH SHOULD BE OK. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL. BUT ALSO CHOSE TO LEAVE VCTS/TS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL IT STARTS TO SPARK TO GET A HANDLE ON WHICH SITES WILL NEED THAT MENTION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD POP UPS FOR THE AFTN ON SAT AND PERHAPS SUNDAY - BUT MAINLY MORE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR. TUE...VFR...WITH SHRA IN THE NORTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU AVIATION...DANGELO

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