Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 030609 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 209 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 11-3.9 IR SATL LOOP AND SFC OBS INDICATING JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL AC CLOUDS ROAMING ABOUT THE AREA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WAS PROVIDING VERY LIGHT WIND...AND DRY DEWPOINTS LEADING TO STRONG RADAITIONAL COOLING OF THE AIR NEAR THE GROUND. MESO OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLD VALLEYS UP NORTH...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S COMMON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL PENN. MANY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT 06Z. LOW TEMPS AT SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO 45-50F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN ACROSS LANCASTER CO...WHERE MDLS POOL LL MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF OLD SFC TROF. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A NICE DAY IS ON TAP TODAY. HEIGHTS RISE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY...SO THINK THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING THINGS DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD...DESPITE A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H TROF TRACKING THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS LATE SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY...PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF AT LEAST CLIMO OR BETTER POPS BUT DUE TO THE N-S MDL QPF DIFFERENCES WILL UTILIZE A BLEND AND CAP POPS AROUND THE HIGH CHC LEVEL /40-50 PCT/ FOR DAYS 3-4. FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WRN PORTION OF THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE TO BE LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WHILE THE ERN SEGMENT WEAKENS AND WAVERS JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE PA AND OH/WV/MD BORDERS. IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BNDRY AND PERHAPS INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC TO LOW CHC RANGE WED-FRI WITH GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z TAFS SENT. ONLY A FEW MID LVL CLDS TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A TASTE OF FINE SPRING WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AGAIN ON WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON THURS. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR EARLY...THEN SHRA IN THE NORTH. WED-THU...MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN

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