Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020514 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 114 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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RADAR IS QUIET AS OF 1AM...WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKY...LGT WIND AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE U30S ACROSS THE NW MTNS BY DAWN...WHILE THE L/M40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST EAST OF SFC TROF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER AND CERTAINLY MILDER THAN TODAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL CU POPPING UP. ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIE ACROSS SE PA. WILL CARRY SCHC OF A PM -SHRA FROM HARRISBURG SOUTH AND EASTWARD. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE L70S IN THE VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD A WEAK ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT WILL LAY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF POSSIBLE THUNDER. ESPECIALLY AS THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR UPSTREAM FORMING OF CONVECTION THAT GETS FUNNELED EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...BUT SHOWERS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION SHOULD THEN DRY OUT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION AT BAY INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO VARY IN SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES DON/T HAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS POINT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE KEPT ONLY A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH MUCH OF THE TIME BEING RAIN FREE. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO WANE AS THE SUN SETS. THERE WAS ENOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF BR IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. DID NOT BRING ANY PARTICULAR AIRFIELD BELOW VFR BUT DID MENTION A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VIS/CIGS AT MOST SITES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD POP UPS FOR THE AFTN ON SAT AND PERHAPS SUNDAY - BUT MAINLY MORE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR. TUE...VFR...WITH SHRA IN THE NORTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU AVIATION...TYBURSKI

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