Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060604 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 204 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... LONG TRAIN OF SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NRN OH AND WRN PA. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH IN...BUT COULD DISSIPATE/BREAK UP AS IT CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. SFC FRONT IS PROBABLY RUNNING THRU THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...STRETCHED ALL THE WAY ACROSS FROM W-E. KEPT POPS VERY HIGH IN THE NWRN COS AND CLEARFIELD CO...BUT SHARP SOUTHERN CUTOFF ALONG WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE FRONT ALOFT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE LAURELS. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... WAVY BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. HIEST CHANCE OF PCPN IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WRN AND NRN MTNS...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SHOWERS DECREASING IN CVRG OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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