Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 050600
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN
THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE
WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN
TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME
MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS
MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW
AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F
AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE
U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY.

BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE
NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS
NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE
DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED
- ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS
ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS
ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS
ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD
KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE
AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND
FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER
THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE
TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT
KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN
11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

OUTLOOK...

WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST.

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM
EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME.

RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES.

THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH
VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
FIRE WEATHER...



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