Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 030549
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
149 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SATL LOOP AT 0230Z SHOWING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
NOTHING MORE THAN A BIT OF CIRRUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ASSOC WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS. LIGHT WINDS BENEATH SFC
HIGH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO COAST DOWN TO THE U30S OVR THE NW MTNS
OVERNIGHT WITH 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN ACROSS LANCASTER CO...WHERE MDLS POOL LL
MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF OLD SFC TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BOOKEND NICE DAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS RISE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY...SO
THINK PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING THINGS DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS
GOOD...DESPITE A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H TROF TRACKING THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS LATE SUN AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY...PROBABLY A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE
WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF AT LEAST CLIMO OR BETTER
POPS BUT DUE TO THE N-S MDL QPF DIFFERENCES WILL UTILIZE A BLEND
AND CAP POPS AROUND THE HIGH CHC LEVEL /40-50 PCT/ FOR DAYS 3-4.

FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WRN PORTION OF THE E-W FRONTAL
ZONE TO BE LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WHILE THE ERN SEGMENT
WEAKENS AND WAVERS JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE PA AND OH/WV/MD BORDERS.
IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH
WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLD
TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BNDRY AND PERHAPS INITIATING OVER THE WRN
HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC TO LOW CHC RANGE
WED-FRI WITH GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.

ONLY A FEW MID LVL CLDS TO THE EAST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A TASTE OF FINE SPRING WEATHER.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND
CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AGAIN ON WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE
SOUTH ON THURS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR EARLY...THEN SHRA IN THE NORTH.
WED-THU...MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



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