Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 070127 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 927 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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9 PM UPDATE... A COUPLE OF ROGUE SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SOMERSET AND DAUPHIN COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS....ALONG WITH FOG AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE RIDGE TOPS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE. A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON- TUE TIMEFRAME. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN ZONES. LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW. LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU

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