Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 061957 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 357 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN HAS ALLOWED SFC BASED CAPES TO CLIMB UP TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SW ZONES...AND THIS HAD LED TO A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS AND SCTD STRONG TSRA WITH AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. ONE STORM JUST SOUTH OF KAOO WAS RECENTLY WARNED ON FOR LARGE HAIL GRTN 1 INCH...HOWEVER THE HAIL CORE APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THE THREAT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 FROM KAOO TO KMDT. FURTHER NORTH...COOLER CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP CONVECTION VERY MINIMAL. SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTH...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIND TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE. A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON- TUE TIMEFRAME. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN ZONES. LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT PCPN. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF PENN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO LOW-END VFR INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH VFR OVC SKIES AT KIPT. LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT

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