Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 250231 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1031 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF OF THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... MCLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND A DIMINISHING WIND BENEATH SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE TO NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A NEAR CERTAINTY OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...IT MAY BE A CASE OF URBAN AREAS/HILLTOPS REMAINING JUST ABV FREEZING...WHILE THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GET A FREEZE. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOT ALL SPOTS ACROSS THE SE WILL DROP BLW FREEZING. MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL THE FALL. RECORD LOWS OF 30F AND 26F AT KMDT AND KIPT ARE PROBABLY SAFE...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLOSE. SHORTWAVE ROUNDING CREST OF RIDGE OVR WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SE TOWARD SW PA EARLY SATURDAY. BATCH OF PRECIP OVR THE LOWER GRT LKS ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DWINDLE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD SW PA...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ACROSS SOMERSET/CAMBRIA/BEDFORD CO ARND 12Z. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAWN DOWN THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN EARLY AM -SHRASN OVR PARTS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK DRY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA...AS RIDGING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE STATE. WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD A FAIR AMT OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW PA. RH TIMESECTIONS SUPPORT MAINLY CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE CWA AND MSUNNY ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH SHOULD RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE SW COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING. MDLS SHOWING A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA SAT NIGHT. THUS...WILL CARRY CAT POPS ACROSS SOMERSET CO SAT NIGHT...BUT CARRY NO MENTION OF RAIN FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS STATE COLLEGE. POPS DECREASE LATE SAT NIGHT...AS LG SCALE FORCING WANES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MDLS INDICATE LINGERING FGEN FORCING/DEEP LYR MOISTURE ALONG THE S TIER THRU SUN AM...SO OCNL LGT RAIN MAY LINGER THRU SUN AM DOWN THERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE SLIDING W-E THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH PRECIP SHIELD ALREADY RECEDING TOWARD THE SE BY 12Z SUN...AND EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX FOR REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD. BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. 00Z TAFS SENT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY TO THE NC COAST BY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND CIGS WILL LOWER ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINTAINING SOME CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST TO LOW VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SCT -SHRASN WEST TO -SHRA EAST. WED...GENERALLY VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST /UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES/ WILL BE COMMON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RH VALUES BTWN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH PA BOF...THE 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE STATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ026>028- 035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN/EVANEGO FIRE WEATHER...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.