Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 312007 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 407 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT BUT RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDE ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WET SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS. A SHARP MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOWS AREA OF PCPN CONTINUING TO AFFECT CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST PCPN HOWEVER IS COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA WITHIN 1 TO 2 HOURS. SHOWERY CONDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTN HOURS...THOUGH THAT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. HAVE CUT BACK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR THE EAST. LASTLY...SPC HAS 1-2 LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN WITHIN THEIR GENERAL TSRA CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC BASED CAPES /ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED SFC LOW TRACK/ CLIMB TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. INCLUDED THE CHC FOR TSRA IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS ACRS THE SOUTHERN TWO LAYERS OF COUNTIES IN SCENT PENN THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SFC LOW WILL EXIT THE NJ/DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED FROM THURSDAY INTO EASTER WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 IN THE NORTH TO 30F IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND AROUND 50F IN THE FAR SOUTH...ACCOMPANIED BY PARTIAL CLEARING AND A 7-12 KT NWRLY WIND && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. THE 31/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING THE PCPN PATTERN MUCH BETTER THIS CYCLE WITH TWO WAVES OF LOW PRES FCST TO RIDE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SECOND WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VLY THROUGH THE NRN MID ATLC STATES INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A GOOD SURGE OF MSTR/PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVES SUGGESTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN THUR NGT-FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER A 24-36HR PERIOD ENDING 12Z SATURDAY. THE OTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NRN ZONES ON THE TAIL END OF PCPN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS APPEARS LKLY ON SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY COOL/RAW START TO THE EASTER WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN AS SFC MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT. LINGERING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG AS STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... WED-THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING. SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/. REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS. SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037- 041-042-046-049-051>053-058. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006- 012-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER NEAR TERM...GARTNER SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...GARTNER/MARTIN

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