Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040536 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 136 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... H5 RIDGE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT... WHILE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS PARALLELS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP TRANQUIL AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNGIHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... MONDAY WILL FEATURE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON CU. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TUE-WED AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AS IMPULSES OF ENERGY RIPPLE THROUGH ALOFT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. KEPT MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA PER SPC DY3 OUTLOOK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING QPF PLACEMENT AND AMTS AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5-10PCT TO 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER STAGNANT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSING NEAR THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND NEWD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE NRN MID ATLC STATES APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE FAVORED PCPN ZONE. IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ISOLD-SCT DIURNAL/TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE COOLER MARITIME FLOW INFLUENCE THAT COULD IMPACT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP FCST ESPECIALLY WITH POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS EXPECTED...SUNDAY TURNED OUT TO BE A NICE MID SPRING DAY. HOWEVER THERE WAS MORE CLOUDS THAN I EXPECTED. LOW DEWPOINTS AND WARMING ALOFT...THUS I DID NOT PUT A LOT OF CLDS IN THE FCST. FOR TODAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUDS. MORE LIKE A LATE FALL PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NE COAST...AND A SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT KBFD. OUTLOOK... TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA POSS AT KBFD. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH. WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS WERE TOO MOIST WITH MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SIMILAR ADJUSTMENT OF GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCES MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. WITH 20 FOOT WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 MPH FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.... AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE RUNNING FROM 8 TO 10 PERCENT FROM THE ENDLESS MOUNTAIN REGION OF NORTHEAST PA TO THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY...CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD/RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN A SWATH FROM TIOGA...LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SCHUYLKILL LEBANON AND LANCASTER COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041-042-046-051>053-058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR

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