Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 250623 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 223 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHILE A LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... MCLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS/...AND A LIGHT NORTH TO NW WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE EARTH/S SURFACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE TO NEAR RECORD LOWS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA EARLY TODAY. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A NEAR CERTAINTY OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...IT MAY BE A CASE OF URBAN AREAS/HILLTOPS REMAINING JUST ABV FREEZING...WHILE THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS GET A FREEZE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 13Z TODAY FOR THE COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOT ALL SPOTS ACROSS THE SE WILL DROP BLW FREEZING. IT MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING UNTIL THE FALL. RECORD LOWS OF 30F AND 26F AT KMDT AND KIPT ARE PROBABLY SAFE...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLOSE. INITIAL ARM OF MID LEVEL WAA LIGHT RAIN /AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ WAS SPREADING SE ACROSS WRN LAKE ERIE AND NRN OHIO AT 0530Z. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OR ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL FIZZLE OUT AS IT HEADS INTO THE RIDGING AND VERY DRY LLVL AIR ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES...OR ICE PELLETS THAT FALL FROM THE INCREASING MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. KEPT POPS THERE BELOW 20 PERCENT THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES EARLY TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS SLOWLY RISING BEFORE DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN EARLY AM -SHRASN OVR PARTS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK DRY ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA...AS RIDGING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE STATE. WAA ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD A FAIR AMT OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW PA. RH TIMESECTIONS SUPPORT MAINLY CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE CWA AND MSUNNY ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE...THOUGH SHOULD RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAIN INTO THE SW COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING. MDLS SHOWING A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT. THUS...WILL CARRY CAT POPS ACROSS SOMERSET CO OVERNIGHT...BUT CARRY NO MENTION OF RAIN FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. ONLY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KUNV. POPS DECREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...AS LG SCALE FORCING WANES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MDLS INDICATE LINGERING FGEN FORCING/DEEP LYR MOISTURE ALONG THE S TIER THRU SUN AM...SO OCNL LGT RAIN MAY LINGER THRU SUN AM DOWN THERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE SLIDING W-E THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH PRECIP SHIELD ALREADY RECEDING TOWARD THE SE BY 12Z SUN...AND EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX FOR REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD. BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRES INITIALLY PROVIDING M/CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WINDS WILL YIELD TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY BUT EXPECT FLGT CATS TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. JST AND AOO HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE ON MONDAY. THE N-NW FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST RISK OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE NRN AND WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST. WED...GENERALLY VFR EARLY WITH CHC OF PM SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035- 036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.