Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 041553 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1153 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A MAINLY FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GR LAKES WILL COMBINE FOR A VERY WARM DAY UNDER A FRESHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. WARMING ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN WILL CAP OF MOST HIGH-BASED CU THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERWARD...WE/LL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS. STABILITY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GR LAKES WITH THE SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS COOKING UP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS WARREN COUNTY. MY FAR NWRN ZONES COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND THE WEAK SFC-BASED AND ML CAPES. IT SHOULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S...TO LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND SUSQ REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST- EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... WITH THE FRONT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...TUESDAY WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE`LL SHAVE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FRONT THAT WILL BE SLOW TO SETTLE THROUGH THE REGION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OR EVEN WASH OUT ALTOGETHER OFF TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TREND FROM MID WEEK ONWARD WILL BE FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...AND BY WEEK`S END TAKES ON THE LOOK OF A REX BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN US. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SERN COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATER IN THE WEEK. NHC HAS BEEN ISSUING SPECIAL STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE SEE TO HAVE SUDDENLY TRANSITIONED INTO AN EARLY SUMMER TYPE PATTERN. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING VFR CONDS WITH EXCELLENT VSBYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN TAF SITES...WHILE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST PA THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION POSSIBLE AT KBFD. BRIEF REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE FURTHER SE BY TUE AM...THUS I ADDED A LINE TO THE 12Z TAFS. OUTLOOK... TUE...AM LOW CIGS/SHRA. WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY. MIN RH`S WILL BE BELOW 30% AND MARGINAL WINDS HAVE LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MY EASTERN ZONES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ037-041- 042-046-051>053-058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT

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