Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 022148 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 548 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... VIS LOOP AT 21Z ALREADY SHOWING CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF AN ISOLD -SHRA UNTIL 23Z EAST OF HARRISBURG...WHERE CU STILL SHOW SOME VERTICAL EXTENT. OTHERWISE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BOOKEND NICE DAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS RISE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY...SO THINK PREVIOUS IDEA OF KEEPING THINGS DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS GOOD...DESPITE A WEAK EMBEDDED 5H TROF TRACKING THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS LATE SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY...PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL PWS ALONG THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR OF AT LEAST CLIMO OR BETTER POPS BUT DUE TO THE N-S MDL QPF DIFFERENCES WILL UTILIZE A BLEND AND CAP POPS AROUND THE HIGH CHC LEVEL /40-50 PCT/ FOR DAYS 3-4. FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WRN PORTION OF THE E-W FRONTAL ZONE TO BE LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VLY WHILE THE ERN SEGMENT WEAKENS AND WAVERS JUST WEST/SOUTH OF THE PA AND OH/WV/MD BORDERS. IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE BNDRY AND PERHAPS INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE SCHC TO LOW CHC RANGE WED-FRI WITH GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE REALLY HIGH-BASED CU ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING. DRYING NRLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE REMAINING CU OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SKC WILL RULE FOR THE NIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY FEW CU ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY....MAINLY IN THE NORTH. BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AGAIN ON WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON THURS. OUTLOOK... TUE...VFR...WITH SHRA IN THE NORTH. WED-THU...
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...DANGELO

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