Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240833 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 433 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF APRIL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE VERY DRY AIR /WITH PWATS BELOW 0.25 OF AN INCH/ ADVECTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE THIS MORNING...BEFORE PICKING UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SCENT MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THROUGH 13Z. 08Z TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEG F IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS HAVE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. EXPECT MINS ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING COUNTIES TO SETTLE OUT BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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WE MAY STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES FALLING OUT OF LOW CIGS EARLY TODAY AS VERY COLD 850 MB AIR FLOWS OVER THE LAKES. BUILDING SFC RIDGE AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES EVEN TO THE NW MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. 8H TEMP ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD BLW NORMAL WILL KEEP MAXES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THE INCREASED INSOLATION WILL MEAN MOST SPOTS END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS BY FRI AFTN...AS DEEPENING BLYR ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS FRIDAY NIGHT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WIND BENEATH SFC RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. SREF/GEFS BOTH INDICATE A HIGH PROB OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST CONSALL MINS RANGE FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO THE L30S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RECORD LOW FOR THE 25TH AT KMDT IS 31F. HAVE INCLUDED FROST IN THE FCST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT AM AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ACTIVE GROWING SEASON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST. MED RANGE MDL DATA ALL SHOW WEAKENING LOW PRES TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF PA SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO UPPER LVL CONFLUENT ZONE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. BULK OF 12Z MDL DATA...INCLUDING ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM...ALL INDICATE A SFC LOW TRACK THAT JUST BRUSHES SOUTHERN PA WITH RAIN LATE SAT. MEANWHILE...GFS/GEFS FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK WITH RAIN REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. CURRENT FCST REFLECTS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES AND LOW CHC POPS EXTENDING TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. A GLANCE AT MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF WET SNOW CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COS. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS ECENS AND GEFS BOTH SHOW UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG BRIEFLY WOBBLING WESTWARD TOWARD PA BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT FOR GOOD BY MIDWEEK. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...BOTH ECENS AND GEFS SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST. UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT PA OR PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL 4-6SM -SHSN OVER THE NRN AIRSPACE WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NW FLOW PATTERN SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AND WDSPRD VFR LATER THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND OVER CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE TONIGHT. EXPECT FQNT SFC WIND GUSTS FROM 290-320 DEGREES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND DROP AOB 5KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM MID MO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OFF THE NC COAST BY SUN EVE. RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN AIRFIELDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NRN/NERN AIRSPACE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND AND BRING A COOL NW REGIME TO CENTRAL PA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST TO LOW VFR CENTRAL/EAST. SCT -SHRASN WEST TO -SHRA EAST. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST /UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES/ WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH RH VALUES FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. PER COLLABORATION WITH PA BOF...THE 10-HR FINE FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM OCCURRING.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ026>028-035- 036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT

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