Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 190555 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 155 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...USHERING IN A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND TO START SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS JUST TO OUR NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AN ADVANCING VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. LATEST MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING SHOWERS BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. CENTRAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN BY NIGHTFALL AS THE PRECIP SPREADS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... STRONG SERLY LLJ OF 50-60KT AT 2-4 KFT AGL COULD MAKE FOR A GUSTY SFC WIND IN FAVORED AREAS /I.E. RIDGE TOPS AND TO THE NORTH OF GAPS IN THE RIDGES/ AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.6 TO 1.25 INCHES BY 12Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY MINOR. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLD SPOTS UP NORTH...TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE EAST...BUT COOLER MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. HIGH IN THE WEST COULD TURN OUT 3-5 DEG F COOLER WITH AN EARLIER ONSET TO THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAIN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST... MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A VEIL OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING SUNDAY...BUT WITH WINDS AGAIN INCREASING DURING THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON APPROACHING SYSTEM. SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH WARM ADVECTION. RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREAD IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHERLY 50-60 KT WIND IN THE 2-4 KFT AGL LAYER. WIDESPREAD POOR FLYING CONDITIONS /IFR TO LIFR/ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WARM/COLD FRONT COMBINATION MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. OUTLOOK... MON...RA TRANSITIONING TO SHRA...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH CFP. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR IMPROVING TO MORE SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. TUE-THU...UNSETTLED WITH NW FLOW...WITH AREAS OF RESTRICTED CIGS/VSBYS IN SHRA IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS IN MORE SCATTERED SHRA IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY VFR IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... WHILE WINDS FROM THE SE MAY BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN MOVE IN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/RXR AVIATION...JUNG/RXR FIRE WEATHER...

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