Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 061541 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1141 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SFC WAS DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE LATE THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST SLOPE OF THE 925-850 MB BOUNDARY IS OVER THE REGION NEAR INTESTATE 80. A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIDING ESE OVER THIS BOUNDARY LED TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH A FEW DISCRETE TSRA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN. LATEST...14Z HRRR CONFIRMS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL EXIT THE SUSQ VALLEY SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OCCURS...AND SKIES STAY MAINLY CLOUDY. THE INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON - MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF RT22/322 IN SOUTHERN PENN. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED...AND IN A FEW CLUSTERS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PULSE UP PRETTY HIGH WHERE SFC-BASED CAPES CLIMB ABOVE 1300 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WNW WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO PEAKS GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE BELOW 40 MPH WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. MAX TEMPS IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR OVER THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS /OR MORE/. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON. A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER SUSQ VALLYE LATE THIS MORNING /WITH SOME ISOLATED TSRA INVOF /OR JUST SOUTH/ OR KMDT WILL LIKELY PASS 15-20 MILES SOUTH OF KLNS OVER THE NEXT 90 MINUTES. AFTERWARD...THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT EAST WEST FROM BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE IN THE SFC-5 KFT AGL LAYER WILL HELP TO KEEP PLENTY OF MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND OCNLY LIFR IN THE MOIST AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY....THOUGH IFR TO LIFR APPEARS THAT IT/LL PERSIST ALSO INVOF KUNV...AND KFIG WITH MVFR OVS SKIES AT KIPT. LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN

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