Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 050600 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 200 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WAITING UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM THE W/SW AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. A LITTLE CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN TIER. TEMPS VERY MILD OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WAVY BOUNDARY WAGGLES OVERHEAD FOR THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES EVEN TOUGHER TO FIND IN THE PROGS BUT SEEMS LIKE IT GETS NUDGED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED EVENING. WITH NO STRONG TRIGGER DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LOWEST STABILITY TIME OF DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN LITTLE BY LITTE. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE/THETA-E CONVG IS DEVELOPED BY THE MESO MDLS LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE W/SW AND HIGHEST POPS ARE ON ORDER FOR THE SW. THINNER CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE EAST TO GET INTO THE U70S AND MAYBE NEAR 80F AGAIN. BUT THE CLOUDIER/SHOWERY WX IN THE SW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE U60S/L70S. STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY. BIG MCS OVER THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY WILL TAKE A TRACK INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY RIGHT ALONG OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NY BORDER THIS EVENING. GOOD FORCING AND PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES WILL MAKE SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN UP THERE. THE DILEMMA IS JUST HOW FAR IT WILL GET INTO PA. SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED - ESP IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OF US AND A DECREASE IN POPS IS ON ORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR SRN TIER COS WED AM...AS ALMOST ALL NUM GUID PLACES THE LOWEST PRESSURES THERE AND WINDS ARE EASTERLY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. SOME DRYING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST /BACKDOOR HIGH PRESSURE?/ SHOULD KEEP THE STABILITY HIGHER IN THE E/NERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. NOT SO SURE ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...BUT BEST CHCS WILL BE IN THE SW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND UP AGAINST THE MORE-MOIST WNW 8H FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD. LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING OVR THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CONDS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST BTWN 11Z-13Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... WED...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS KJST. SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS KJST. THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. && .FIRE WEATHER... STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD FIRE WEATHER...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.