Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260711 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 311 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... EXTENSIVE MID CLOUD SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE THINNER CIRROSTRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND INTERSTATE 80. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOMERSET COUNTY...THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND. MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WILL VARY FROM THE U20S ACRS THE NORTH...TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... NARROW SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC BAND OF DRY AIR/LOW PWATS WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. THUS...SEE A MAINLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF AND ASSOC COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE SWINGING SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY AFTN...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF AFTN CU AND EVEN A FEW ISOLD -SHRA...ESP OVR THE N MTNS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF COVERAGE AND LOW PWATS...ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY. THUS...WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION -SHRA IN FCST ATTM. LATEST...00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH 10Z...A 3500-4500 DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER A BLANKET OF MID CLOUDS. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...THESE WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN LESS THAN 8 MPH THROUGH 15Z. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ACROSS THESE AREAS TO 10G18MPH. THE CENTRAL AND SE WILL SEE FEW-SCT FLAT CU DEVELOP WITH N/NW WINDS OF 8-10 MPH. CIGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...NO SIG WX. THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR

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