Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270558 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 158 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EARLY MORNING IR SATL LOOP SHOWS EXPANSIVE...OVC STRATOCU DECK ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN PA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK HAS REACHED THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AS OF 06Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD THIS MORNING. SUBTLE UPPER LVL RIDGING BTWN SHORTWAVES AND COOLING BLYR SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN MTNS DRY FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE NIGHT. CHC OF SHSNRA DEVELOPS TOWARD DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS UPON APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS LK ERIE. LOW TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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MODELS AGREE IN TRACKING A RELATIVELY SHARP SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN PA TODAY. GEFS/SREF QPF FIELDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...IN LINE WITH TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND BEST LG SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOC WITH POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTN...W/SCT -SHRA EVEN ACROSS EASTERN PA. MDL SOUNDINGS REMAIN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW MON AM ACROSS THE NW MTNS...SO HAVE MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED UP THERE THRU ARND 14Z. LOW PWATS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRETHS AT BEST. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARND -1C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE M40S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER THAN NORMAL...SHOWERY WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND TRY TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. STARTING AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. EARLY THIS WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE SERN TO MID ATLC STATES...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE. AT THIS POINT SIGNIFICANT PCPN LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF PA...THOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. REGARDLESS...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. AFFECTS OF THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER...AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC/CCW CIRCULATION OVER THE NERN U.S. WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NY STATE AND ACROSS CENTRAL PA AIRSPACE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIURNALLY FAVORED SHOWER ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SHSN EARLY THIS MORNING AT BFD/ AND BKN TO OVC MVFR TO LOW- END VFR CIGS. WINDS FROM 290-320 WILL GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN FCST CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS IS OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN TAF SITES IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... TUE...MVFR CIGS WEST/LOW-END VFR CIGS CENTRAL AND EAST. WED...NO SIG WX. THU-FRI...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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