Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180214 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1014 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY...DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES AND A LIGHT WIND. THE RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A TRANQUIL MORNING UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A DRY...QUASI BACKDOOR CFRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND A TIGHTENING LLVL P-GRADIENT WILL KICK THE WINDS UP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PART OF THE STATE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST...BUT PERHAPS ONLY THE M-U60S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/NW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AT THIS POINT AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT BRINING ANY RAIN INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 21Z PRECEDED BY THICKENING CLOUDS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE SW FOR LATE IN THE DAY...AND NUDGE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. POTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS OVER OHIO VALLEY AND LIFTS ACROSS PA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN TO QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS BRINGING TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FIRST SUN NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE VERY MOIST FLOW AND LL JET /WITH REMNANTS OF AN OLD UPPER LOW LIFTING ALONG WITH IT/. COULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION MON BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. AREA OF 500-1000J CAPE SLIPS IN MONDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME SCT TSTMS MAINLY TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST... MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FEW-SCT CU REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z. EXPECT CLR SKIES WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY SAT MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW/COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH NEXT UPDATE AT 03Z. A DRY COLD FRONT TRAILING WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS 15-25 KTS FROM 300 TO 330 DEGREES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE. ADDED FM GROUPS AT 15/16Z TO INDICATE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY 50+KT. OUTLOOK... MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH RESTRICTIONS LKLY. TUE-WED...SCT PM SHOWERS. MVFR TO VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. FINER FUELS SHOULD DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE RECENT RAIN...AND THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL FIRE WEATHER...

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