Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251250 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 850 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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8 AM UPDATE... RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW STREAKING SE THROUGH THE SRN LAURELS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. HRRR SHOWS THIS STRATIFORM PRECIP DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND NE EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BENEATH STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR EARLY MORNING FLURRIES FALLING IN THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN RT22 AND INTERSTATE 80. AS A NEARLY EAST/WEST BELT OF -2 TO -3 SIGMA 850 MB EAST- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SLIDES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PENN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD BECOME STEADIER. ELEVATIONS AOA 2400 MSL COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN AS 850 MB TEMPS TEETER AROUND 0C. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM NEAR 50F ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NRN MTNS...TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. THESE FCST MAX TEMPS COULD BUST SLIGHTLY BY BEING A FEW TO SVRL DEG F TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS EASTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW /APPROACHING FROM THE MISS VALLEY/ WILL LIKELY SPREAD A SHIELD OF STEADIER /MAINLY LIGHT/ RAIN INTO THE SW COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. WILL CARRY CAT POPS ACROSS SOMERSET CO THIS MORNING...BUT CARRY NO MENTION OF RAIN FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. ONLY A FEW SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING MEASURABLE RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KUNV. POPS DECREASE FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...AS LG SCALE FORCING WANES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...MDLS INDICATE LINGERING FGEN FORCING/DEEP LYR MOISTURE ALONG THE S TIER THRU SUN AM...SO OCNL LGT RAIN MAY LINGER THRU 16Z SUN DOWN THERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVE SLIDING W-E THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH PRECIP SHIELD ALREADY RECEDING TOWARD THE SE BY 12Z SUN...AND EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MED RANGE MDLS SUPPORTS FAIR AND COOL WX FOR REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD. BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 25/12Z...BAND OF LIGHT PCPN /MIXED SNOW AND RAIN/ MOVG ACROSS THE FAR SRN AIRSPACE. THIS PCPN MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT JST BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BUT DRY AIR IS STILL MAINTAINING VFR. OVERALL KEPT PRETTY CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH THE 06/09Z TAFS WITH THE LOWEST CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF PA WILL BRING CLOUDS TO MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT FLGT CATS TO REMAIN VFR IN THE NRN AIRSPACE. JST AND AOO HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS FROM LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE ON MONDAY. THE N-NW FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST RISK OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE NRN AND WRN AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR. OUTLOOK... TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST. WED...GENERALLY VFR EARLY WITH CHC OF PM SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...ROSS/LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR AVIATION...STEINBUGL

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