Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 042312 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 712 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SAG SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SHOWERS ADVANCING ALONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THISD EVENING. MEAGER CAPES OF 200 TO 400 J/KG AVAILABLE AND SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. MOST AREAS PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING SCT SHRA REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MAY UP TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUT LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA...AND NOTHING ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIBBON OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST- EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN MANAGE TO FORM UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WAVY QUASI EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY...AND THE DUAL TO TRI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER SURROUNDING IT SHOULD BE BKN-OVC FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. ANY HOLES AND LOCALIZED ISOLATION THAT OCCUR WILL WORK ALONG WITH THE HIGH PWAT AIR /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ TO BUBBLE UP SCTD- NUMEROUS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE 8-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE...BUT JUST 2-5 DEG LOWER THAN THE PRIOR DAY ACROSS THE SCENT ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ REGION. BASIN AVG RAINFALL TUESDAY SHOULD BE 2-4 TENTHS WITH LOCALLY OVER ONE-HALF OF AND INCH WHERE SEVERAL SHRA AND TSRA OCCUR. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND LINGERING...MAINLY EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE STREAKING THROUGH ALOFT. THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BEST INSTABILITY AND PWS WILL RESIDE OVER SWRN AND SCENTRAL PA BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE QPF DETAILS. THE LATEST FCST KEPT CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-LIKE LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DAYTIME HEATING-TYPE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LKLY INITIATING OVER THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS LATE IN THE PD. LOW PRESSURE NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS ATMOSPHERE COOLS/STABILIZES. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING OVR THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS PLUME OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ASCENDS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL OF IFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 05Z-13Z AND A SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KJST ARND 12Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...AS ANY SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AM SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES OUT NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EAST OVER IT. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...BRIEF TSRA IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... WED...AM LOW CIGS POSS KJST. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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STRONG RH RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL AREAS HAVING RISEN ABOVE 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS OF 7 PM EDT. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED ONE HOUR BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. RHS AND CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SE FROM THE GLAKES. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH COMPARATIVELY HIGHER RH VALUES /THAN MONDAY/ DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TSRA AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT FIRE WEATHER...

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