Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 261422 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1022 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THIS MONTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL TO FUNNEL A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK/EASTERN CANADA AND KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AS AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS DROPPING SOUTH INTO NRN PA. THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS CREATE SOME LIGHT QPF AND THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME SMALL CELLULAR ACTIVITY AT MAX HEATING. IT MAKES SENSE WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRONG LATE APRIL SUN. I DON`T FEEL CONFIDENT IN MEASURING ANYWHERE HOWEVER SO WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR NOW. 00Z GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM NR 50F ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 60F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...STILL WELL BLW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TREND TWD BKN-OVC SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD -SHRA LATE TONIGHT /BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY/. COLD BLYR TEMPS WITH ZERO DEG C WET BULB HEIGHT ONLY 1-2KFT AGL WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS TO ALLOW WET SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE SHOWERS...ESP AT ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 MSL. SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F MONDAY AFTERNOON /AND THE ZERO WET BULB HEIGHT RISING TO BETWEEN 2-3 KFT AGL/ WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN A BIT. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER BASED CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NY. BY MID DAY A SCT-BKN 4000-5000FT DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WITH RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AT KBFD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KJST. SCT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE... CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSS ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MON...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TUE...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...NO SIG WX. THU...MVFR POSS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...LA CORTE/RXR

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