Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 031924 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 324 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HEATING HAS CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND ALTO-CU. OTHERWISE ITS A FINE LATE SPRING DAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. WE SHOULD LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... MONDAY WILL FEATURE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON CU. ANY CHC FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND LIMITED TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SE FROM THE GLAKES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A BACKDOOR-STYLE SFC COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL WAVER NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TUE-WED AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AS IMPULSES OF ENERGY RIPPLE THROUGH ALOFT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. KEPT MENTION OF SCHC TSTMS TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA PER SPC DY3 OUTLOOK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING QPF PLACEMENT AND AMTS AND THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS ANOTHER 5-10PCT TO 50-60 PCT RANGE. THE PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER STAGNANT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION FOCUSING NEAR THE FRONT-SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AND NEWD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE NRN MID ATLC STATES APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE FAVORED PCPN ZONE. IN GENERAL THE PCPN PATTERN SHOULD BE SUMMER-LIKE WITH WEAK FORCING UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ISOLD-SCT DIURNAL/TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE COOLER MARITIME FLOW INFLUENCE THAT COULD IMPACT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP FCST ESPECIALLY WITH POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TASTE OF FINE SPRING WEATHER. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW AND CREATE LOW CIGS/SHOWERS INTO WED. THE FRONT MAY PUSH TO THE SOUTH ON THURS. OUTLOOK... TUE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL REDUCED CONDITIONS. WED...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR/IFR. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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SFC DEWPOINTS AND CORRESPONDING RH VALUES TRENDED LOWER THAN FCST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY SITES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. 10-HR FINE FUELS ARE BELOW THE CRITICAL 10 PERCENT LEVEL PER COORDINATION WITH BOF (VIA NWS PHI). LIGHT WINDS KEPT FIRE DANGER IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY TODAY...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE FOR MONDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AFTN RH OR FUELS. FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FCSTS WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LA CORTE FIRE WEATHER...STEINBUGL

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