Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 021107 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 707 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE LAST OF THE MID CLOUD DECK IS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR TO SCATTERED WITH LIGHT WINDS. OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...MOST LOCATIONS WILL START THE DAY BRIGHT AND SUNNY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GR LAKES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT THEY SHOULD DO LITTLE TO MAR AN OTHERWISE FINE MID SPRING DAY. I HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE FAR SE IN WHAT`S LEFT OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. HIGHS WILL MAKE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 TO MAKE FOR A GREAT START TO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY. THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIR. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE THE BOOKEND NICE DAY TO COMPLETE THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AS WELL AS THE SREF AND GEFS HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY...BUT I`M HAVING A HARD TIME JUSTIFYING THAT GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS OF RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. I CHOSE TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND ECMWF WHICH KEEP IT DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY...PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS/SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED...OUR BROAD NW FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW WILL BE REPLACED BY DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW AND GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAKES ITS FIRST REAL SURGE UP OVER THE EASTERN US. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SPEEDING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NRN GR LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTH BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO BUILD AS THE RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF...IT HAS THE LOOK AND FEEL OF A SUMMER-TYPE PATTERN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE SLOW MOVING WEAK SURFACE FRONT...BUT STAYING WARM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LIKELY AS WELL. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OR WASHES OUT UNDER THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THE SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WILL REMAIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. PERHAPS A SIGN OF THE SEASON...AS THE MODELS PUMP UP THE EASTERN US RIDGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND...THEY TRY TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOOKING SYSTEM OFF THE SERN ATL COAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO LARGE CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. A VERY THIN LAYER OF HZ AND FOG AT UNV AND LNS AT TIMES THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF THIS THIN LAYER OF FOG AND HZ...EXPECT JUST A FEW CLDS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MONDAY. A NICE SPRING DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD POP SHOWERS THIS AFTN TODAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY...BUT LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FCST. THE MAIN CHANCE IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...GENERALLY VFR. TUE...VFR...WITH SHRA IN THE NORTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...MARTIN

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