Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 060942 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 542 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHAT WAS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT/HOMOGENOUS AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN INTO MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT HAS SLID INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VALEY. ONLY SAW ONE LTG STRIKE SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SOME OF THE CELLS ARE CARRYING 50 DBZS AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHC TO PRODUCE THUNDER. TINY DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SRN MTNS ARE MOVING QUICKLY AS ARE THE OTHER SHOWERS. THEREFORE LITTLE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. THE RADAR ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 6 HRS HAS A STRIPE OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT NOTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. HRRR AND RUC SLIDE THE CURRENT PRECIP FAIRLY STRAIGHT TO THE EAST...WHILE THE NAM AND HI RES ARW ALLOW THE QPF TO EXPAND A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PAINTED HIGH POPS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OPINION IN CARRYING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST. A LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY POP SHOWERS/TSRA - MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPARSE...THOUGH. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT LARGELY TOO STABLE/COOL TO GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH A SMALL POP FOR THE AFTN. MAXES IN THE N WILL BE IN THE L-M60S...BUT GET INTO THE M-U70S IN THE S. THESE ARE PRETTY NORMAL NUMBERS. THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BY FAR FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE IN THE EVENING...GENERALLY BEING CONFINED TO THE LAURELS/SC MTNS AFTER DARK. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE...BUT CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE WEST AND FOG IS POSSIBLE IF THE CLEARING CAN DEVELOP. MINS WILL STICK ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMALS SINCE THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO HANG ON. A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS. WILL STICK WITH A 20-30 POP THERE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT GENERAL AREA...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL RISE AS MUCH OF THE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP. GIVEN THE ALREADY-WARM START TO THE DAY...AFTN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET 10F ABOVE NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND FEEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PCPN PATTERN FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST NDFD POPS ARE MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPS OFF TO AVG BY THIS TIME WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH RESPECT TO MAINTAINING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE VS. A COOLER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL HAVE NOT DEVIATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND FAVORED MORE OF A MIXED BLEND FOR DAYS 7 AND 8. SUBTROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND NOT IMPACT THE AREA WITH PCPN OR ONSHORE FLOW. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ADJUSTED 09Z TAFS FOR CURRENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS N PA WITH EAST...WEST COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM AT TIMES BASED ON ECHO TOPS. EXPECT BFD TO HAVE THE MAIN CHANCE TO HAVE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SAG TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT BECOMES MORE NW TO SE LATER TODAY. THUS OTHER SITES MAY SEE LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA. OUTLOOK... THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST. FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...MARTIN

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